It was 19 February when Jadon Sancho put Manchester United three goals ahead against Leicester. Since then, 19 teams have scored in the Premier League. The other is United. On 19 February, they were six points behind Arsenal. Now the gap is 22. They are as close to Arsenal as they are to Wolves.
And if the numbers reflect the way United have disrupted their own fixture list by fighting on four fronts to such an extent that only three of their last nine fixtures have been in the Premier League, the context has changed. Rather than being improbable title challengers, United are at risk of missing out on the Champions League. A top-four finish has seemed an inevitability for much of 2023. Now it is at risk.
They have had more damning defeats this season – going four goals down by half-time at Brentford, losing 7-0 to Liverpool – but potentially none more damaging than a 2-0 setback at St James’ Park.
It reshaped the race for the top four. It suggested that, 47 matches into a marathon season, an overrun United side may be running out of steam. It is worth remembering it was only their fourth loss in their last 38 games in all competitions and that this side have shown an ability to respond to setbacks.
Yet amid unbeaten runs, there is still the sense their worst can be very bad. Newcastle represented another low. “They won it on passion, desire, hunger and attitude,” said Luke Shaw. “They clearly had higher motivation than we had and that can’t be possible.” Rarely one to sugar-coat things, Erik ten Hag agreed. “I was surprised that we couldn’t match the determination and passion of the opponent,” he said.
There are fault-lines in his squad, an uneven element to this season’s revival. This United are often a tougher proposition, but can seem a soft touch in certain types of fixtures. Their statement results have largely been at Old Trafford, plus Wembley and the Nou Camp, but not away in the Premier League. They have no point, let alone a victory, on the road against the rest of the current top nine. In six games, they have conceded 25 times. It means the trip to Tottenham on 27 April assumes huge importance, while May’s visit to Brighton also looks daunting. Moreover, United’s heavy losses on their travels have dented their goal difference; they may yet be denied Champions League football by a glut of Liverpool goals.
United have progressed as a team but can look hugely dependent on pivotal individuals. Casemiro is a symbolic figure, with his absence as significant as his presence tends to be. He was the man of the match in the Carabao Cup final and suspended for the rematch, when the Brazilian to run the midfield was Bruno Guimaraes.
If United fail to get Champions League football, it may be because of games a Champions League winner has missed through indiscipline: they lost at Arsenal when he was banned and, had Fulham kept 11 men on the pitch, may have gone out of the FA Cup when his latest suspension started. A makeshift midfield was exposed at St James’ Park. The loss of a passer of Christian Eriksen’s class is a mitigating factor but Scott McTominay, the supposed Newcastle target who is United’s middle-distance runner, found Sean Longstaff and Joe Willock ran further and faster.
Ten Hag’s front six arguably only featured two high-class United players. Neither Bruno Fernandes nor Marcus Rashford excelled at St James’ Park, but when they didn’t, no one else did. So potent since the World Cup, Rashford has not struck in domestic game since the Carabao Cup final. Brentford and Aston Villa have nine league goals since United last found the net. “I always have to laugh about such questions because in many other games we score goals,” Ten Hag said. “I know this team has the quality to score goals.”
Yet the over-reliance on Rashford has been exacerbated by others’ failings. His is a huge burden when United have a non-scoring striker and a non-creating winger in the front three: Wout Weghorst has no Premier League goals, Antony no assists. The strangeness of the Weghorst interlude continues, and this was his 19th consecutive start, but Antony is the £86 million man who has an expected assists for the campaign of 0.62; Allan Saint-Maximin and Kieran Trippier have higher tallies from one game in April alone. Antony had the beating of Dan Burn, but no end product.
Weghorst would not get in the Newcastle team; not ahead of the £60 million striker Alexander Isak. Antony might not, were Miguel Almiron fit. And if Newcastle’s squad is a blend of the top class and the lesser lights, so is United’s. Some have overachieved this season, some been carried by Casemiro, Rashford and a few others. Some have been culpable in too many of the away defeats.
The substitutes Anthony Martial and Sancho could offer attacking upgrades on Weghorst and Antony but if Rashford and Fernandes are wearied by their huge workload this season, United risk slowing down when they need a further spurt. A trip to Newcastle was an unwanted flashback, to a team with a wasteland in midfield, to a time when there were more questions about their character.
They still have a favourable run-in, and Casemiro will return after home games against Brentford and Everton. But if there are more days like Newcastle, if there are setbacks at Tottenham and Brighton, winning the Europa League may assume a greater significance. Because if not, the danger is that a seemingly transformative season for United actually takes them back into the Europa League.
