One of the few guarantees of Sunday's derby is Manchester United will not revert to a back three. Four times Ole Gunnar Solskjaer selected an extra centre-back against City; United won twice and lost twice.
The latter defeat was one of the most supine surrenders by United in living memory. The scoreline only ended 2-0 but United had more attempts on target at their own goal than City's.
That was Solskjaer's penultimate match as United manager and Pep Guardiola was asked if he was disappointed City did not win by a greater margin. "No, it's okay." Translation: Ole in. City fans chanted "Five more years".
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Solskjaer had entered the endgame by then and the United suits were waiting for a(nother) suitably humiliating result to summon him to the guillotine. United 0-2 City didn't cut it. Watford 4-1 United two weeks later did, a day away-dayers booed the scorer of the club's most famous goal.
Some United sources said in the wake of Solskjaer's dismissal they found the City result more galling than the 5-0 annihilation by Liverpool. As tactically amateurish as United were that day, they played on the front foot and Bruno Fernandes blazed over with the goal gaping and the game goalless.
Solskjaer opted for a defensive trident 18 times with a record of eight wins, three draws and seven defeats. It was used in 10 fixtures against Premier League top six teams and also reserved for Champions League ties with Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain.
Erik ten Hag's United are still transitioning to a proactive style. Points on the board took precedence after Brentford and they have had a maximum return largely through counter-attacking goals Solskjaer cherished. Eerily, it was for the visit of Liverpool again United put their front foot forward and slayed the 'mentality monsters'.
That was the night Raphael Varane was recalled. Marcus Rashford was predictably among the nominees for the September player of the month award when Varane and Christian Eriksen have underpinned United's resurgence.
Varane was sidelined for both derbies last season. In the 4-1 humbling at the Etihad, the absence of Varane was felt far more than Cristiano Ronaldo's. United fans will have breathed a sigh of relief Varane was an unused substitute for France in Copenhagen on Sunday and was then pictured in training at Carrington on Tuesday.
No matter how Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw performed for England, only injury could cause Ten Hag to budge on United's back four of Diogo Dalot, Varane, Lisandro Martinez and Tyrell Malacia. Dalot stayed on the bench in Lisbon on Tuesday evening, Martinez only played 12 minutes for Argentina in New Jersey and Malacia was involved in the same session as Varane back in Manchester.
Ten Hag has wisely retained the same 4-2-3-1 formation across 14 uncompetitive and competitive games and to abandon it at City would be a jolt. Almost every outfield starter is in form.
It may unnerve supporters Rashford was not present in the imagery from training yesterday. Rashford decided an Etihad derby as an 18-year-old in the first month of his United first-team career and he was crucial to the 2-1 triumph in December 2019, the first-half one of United's best under Solskjaer.
What Rashford has lacked in presence as a centre forward he has made up for with his infiltrations from the left, an in-game game-changer from Ten Hag that elicited winners against Liverpool and Arsenal.
City have a right-back who is better at defending than attacking in Kyle Walker, levels up from auxiliary option Ben White and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Walker hardly covered himself in glory in Milan and England exile Jadon Sancho deceived him for his equaliser at City in March.
It speaks volumes of Ten Hag's coaching cachet United supporters would be completely accepting of Rashford starting ahead of Ronaldo in a derby. That would be the only obvious change from the efficient win against Sheriff a fortnight ago, a game Ten Hag confirmed multiple first-team statuses.
Anthony Martial has not trained in a month and only played 45 minutes in two months. Unless Ten Hag delivers upbeat updates from the physio room on Friday, Ronaldo would have to continue at the tip of the arrow unless Ten Hag favours the flexibility of Anthony Elanga.
One name not as prominent on fans' lips in the build-up is Casemiro. Sooner or later, Ten Hag has to integrate a £70m five-times Champions League winner into his team. Casemiro is the only defensive midfielder in the United squad and the thought of him not starting against City when he was paraded on the Old Trafford turf clutching a red shirt would have been scoffed at.
Yet Eriksen has to start and so does Scott McTominay, a gradual performer since his recall against Liverpool. Casemiro has not started in the Premier League yet and City away is as unforgiving as it gets.
A bullish Bruno Fernandes has the work ethic to complement the midfield axis against City's triumvirate without United displaying an inferiority complex.
Unlike last year.
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