When it comes to deciding between Manchester United's two leading striker targets this summer, it is a trade-off between a player who can offer instant delivery over a shorter time scale or a forward who could deliver long-term, but might take time to settle in.
If United follow Erik ten Hag's instincts and try and do a deal for Tottenham striker Harry Kane then they know what they will be getting next season. Kane has gone past 17 Premier League goals for the ninth season in a row and even wearing the red of United next season, he would be almost guaranteed to make it 10. Alan Shearer's Premier League goalscoring record looks certain to fall.
The alternative target, Napoli's Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen, has only ever scored more than 14 league goals in a season once and that is this term. But the 24-year-old has 19 goals in 21 games in Serie A and has looked like he could be one of the most complete strikers in Europe.
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Osimhen has always had potential. His 18 goals in 38 games for Lille was respectable and 18 in 32 in all competitions for Napoli last season was encouraging. He has exploded this season in a team running away with Serie A and in the hunt for the Champions League.
But the Premier League would be a new challenge for Osimhen and as good as he's been this season, there is no guarantee he would hit the ground running in England. You would probably edge towards Kane providing more goals for United next season.
That is not the only metric that can decide which way United will fall, however. Ten Hag appears certain to push for Kane, but football director John Murtough will have his say and either deal is dependent on agreeing terms with negotiators renowned for driving a hard bargain.
United have had their fill of dealing with Daniel Levy, but if Kane refuses to sign a new deal then Spurs might have little choice but to cash in this summer. They would prefer to sell him abroad than send him to Old Trafford.
Osimhen's exploits in Naples are earning him demi-god status there, but he is likely to feel he has earnt a move this summer. The Serie A title looks like a certainty already and if the Champions League was to follow then it would be the perfect way to depart.
Murtough and Ten Hag must also weigh up the balance in the squad and in particular the age profile. Kane would be 30 by the time next season starts, has had ongoing ankle issues and is a more short-term solution. The problem with that is that the description fits other areas of the United squad.
It was a point raised by Jurgen Klopp before last week's game at Anfield and while it was widely ridiculed and sounded a bit like sour grapes at the time, there is an element of truth to it. “It is obviously not a team built for the next 20 years because the players they signed are for now,” Klopp said a week ago. “But for now it is really good.”
If Kane was to sign then at the start of next season, presuming David de Gea stays, United would have a best XI including De Gea (32), Raphael Varane (30), Luke Shaw (28), Casemiro (31), Christian Eriksen (31), Bruno Fernandes (29 in September) and Kane (30).
It would mean that in the next three to four years United would need to look for a new goalkeeper, central defender, midfielder and another striker. Kane would undoubtedly improve this team, but he would be a short-term solution. There's an argument to say that team would need to win the Premier League or the Champions League within two seasons to make the investment a success, given the relatively limited shelf life they would have.
United are clearly making progress under Ten Hag this season, despite the aberration at Anfield, but they only need to look at the way Liverpool's ageing midfield has collapsed to see how quickly these problems can arise. Varane, Casemiro, Eriksen and Kane all look at their best at the moment, but they are all in or approaching their 30s and it is simply inevitable there will be a drop off in at least one or two of them in the next couple of years.
There might be more of a risk in going for Osimhen. He might not hit the same heights as Kane next season, but there's also no reason to think he won't get there at some point. If he does, then he could provide United with eight years of goals compared to three or four from Kane.
When other areas of the squad will soon need rejuvenation that is a worthwhile consideration. Even if United are bought out soon, the transfer funds are unlikely to be limited and there will be financial fair play issues to navigate. There's also been an attraction about Kane and United, England's biggest player for England's biggest club, but maybe it needed to happen a couple of years ago rather than now.
If United do move for Osimhen and also sign a younger midfielder, such as Jude Bellingham or Frenkie de Jong, then it will be the start of future-proofing this team, because the clock is already ticking. If they move for Kane it will only get louder.
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