The question for Manchester United heading into the January transfer window is how do you replace a striker scoring a goal every 350 minutes so far this season?
Okay, maybe that's a little tongue in cheek, but it's not like Erik ten Hag is trying to replace prime Cristiano Ronaldo in the first month of 2023. The Dutchman has steered United to the brink of the top four in spite of Ronaldo this season, rather than because of him.
Yes, Ronaldo scored the winner at Goodison Park in October, but that has been his only Premier League goal of 2022/23. His other goals came against Sheriff Tiraspol, one of which was a penalty. The 37-year-old has not been tearing it up this season and if Ten Hag had to do without him for the entirety of this season, it's unlikely it would have had any material impact on where his team are in the Premier League.
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So while recruiting a striker would undoubtedly strengthen United's hand in the second half of the season, it's a balancing act as to whether it's worth compromising more long-term transfer plans for an option that is seen as maybe only a short-term fix.
United believe they have strengthened their recruitment principles in recent years, with a greater emphasis on data and an ability to quickly generate shortlists for every position. But the shortlist for an elite-level striker in a summer window will be stronger than a shortlist for an available forward mid-season.
Recruitment experts at the club will usually present a list of options to the manager when he wants a position filled, although there is sometimes deviation from that. Odion Ighalo wasn't a forward being tracked when he was signed as an emergency striker in the winter of 2020.
For all the ridicule at United signing Ighalo, he did what was required of him, scoring five goals and making an impact worthy of a last-minute loan signing.
But Ighalo's name won't be cropping up in recruitment meetings between now and January 1. United always planned to sign a striker in the summer of 2023, although they did consider bringing that forward a year, when there was interest in RB Salzburg teenager Benjamin Sesko.
With the Slovenian signing a pre-contract agreement with RB Leipzig, he looks to be off the market. Napoli's sharp-shooter Victor Osimhen is a potential summer target, while AC Milan forward Rafael Leao will almost certainly attract Premier League interest as well.
The problem for United is that neither is likely to be available in January. Napoli certainly won't consider selling Osimhen with their season looking so promising and Milan would need a huge bid to let a player like Leao leave in the middle of the campaign.
If United want to wait for a player of that kind of calibre, they need to balance the short-term needs of a forward in January. If Anthony Martial stays fit for the rest of the season they can probably do without, but that is a major gamble to take.
On the one hand, United have got to within three points of the top four with a game in hand with a minimal contribution from Ronaldo and Martial. But, they are likely to face improving challenges from Chelsea and Liverpool after the World Cup.
If United can return to the Champions League this season it will strengthen Ten Hag's budget for next summer and make Old Trafford a more attractive proposition for players. But if they don't sign a forward in January it might put those ambitions at risk.
You can see why this is a difficult decision for Ten Hag and football director John Murtough. They do at least have some extra funds to play with.
The fact Ronaldo left the club without taking a pay-off has saved around £16million in wages. That is a significant saving between now and the end of the season and could be put towards signing a forward in January.
That kind of sum evidently won't attract a world-class forward, but it might be enough to sign someone who can be a worthy short-term option, without taking anything out of the budget for the summer.
The next challenge would be to find a striker available for that kind of figure, but United's beefed-up approach to data in recruitment could help with that.
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