Manchester United are about to face a real test of how much they have progressed under Erik ten Hag, with star midfielder Casemiro set for three games on the sidelines.
Casemiro received the first straight red card of his senior career during United’s 2-1 win over Crystal Palace on Sunday. The Brazilian was given his marching orders in the 70th minute after VAR reviewed footage which showed him grabbing Palace midfielder Will Hughes by the neck in a melee.
United had initially indicated that they would appeal against the three-match ban, but Ten Hag has since confirmed the club have decided against such action. This means the team will be without Casemiro for their next three Premier League matches, which come home and away against Leeds and at home to Leicester.
The 30-year-old remains eligible to play in both legs of United's upcoming Europa League play-off with Barcelona and will return to domestic action in the EFL Cup final against Newcastle on February 26.
Casemiro’s absence is exacerbated by United’s injury problems. Ten Hag revealed on Tuesday that forwards Antony and Anthony Martial will miss Wednesday’s game against Leeds at Old Trafford, while midfielders Christian Eriksen, Scott McTominay and Donny van de Beek are injured.
Marcel Sabitzer is therefore set for his first start since arriving on loan from Bayern Munich on January transfer deadline day. He could start alongside Fred at the base of United’s depleted midfield.
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"We have a squad, we have many good players in our squad who are also not playing in the starting XI and I have to do it," Ten Hag insisted. "After a game, I can't say Casemiro is not there, Anthony Martial is not there. We have to win. United are capable and we have to win the games, no matter who is on the pitch."
United are third in the Premier League, just three points behind rivals Manchester City following their 1-0 defeat by Tottenham on Sunday. A win over manager-less Leeds on Wednesday would therefore send them level on points with City, albeit having played a game more.
Leeds sacked Jesse Marsch on Monday after a 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest extended their winless run in the Premier League to seven matches. But the loss of Casemiro could well be crucial to the result, given the huge impact he has made since completing a £60million transfer from Real Madrid in the summer.
Casemiro has started 23 matches for United across all competitions this season. Ten Hag’s side have won 18 of those, drawn three and lost just twice. In those matches, they have scored 42 goals and conceded just 14.
There is a smaller sample size for games Casemiro has not started, but United’s record is significantly worse. In those games, their record reads: played 11, won seven, lost four. Significantly, they have scored 22 to 19 conceded.
With Casemiro in the team, United have scored at a rate of 1.82 goals per game and conceded just 0.6. Without him, they have scored at two goals per game, but, crucially, they have conceded 1.72.
With Casemiro
Played: 23
Won: 18
Drawn: 3
Lost: 2
Goals for: 42
Goals per game: 1.82
Goals against: 14
Goals against per game: 0.60
Without Casemiro
Played: 11
Won: 7
Drawn: 0
Lost: 4
Goals for: 22
Goals per game: 2.0
Goals against: 19
Goals against per game: 1.72
