Riyad Mahrez went into the Africa Cup of Nations vowing to make Algeria proud, hoping to become his country's first captain to retain the continental trophy.
The Manchester City man played a talismanic role in Algeria's 2019 success, scoring the 95th-minute winner in the semi-final and playing a leading role in the final. After kicking on in the two and a half years since back at City, Mahrez went into the delayed 2021 tournament this month as one of the stars of African football.
Two games in, and it could hardly be going worse for Mahrez in Cameroon.
Algeria were held to a goalless draw in their first game against Sierra Leone, but had a clash against Equatorial Guinea - ranked 114th in the world and 84 places below Mahrez's men - next up to respond and put one foot in the last-16.
That game came yesterday, though, and Equatorial Guinea produced one of the shocks of AFCON history by defeating Mahrez's men 1-0. The winner was scored by Esteban Obiang of Spanish fourth-tier side Antequera, and the upset condemned Algeria to their first defeat in a staggering 35 matches - two short of Italy's world record set last year.
Now, Algeria are bottom of Group E with their toughest game remaining against Ivory Coast on Thursday. Mahrez's men have one point, Sierra Leone have two, Equatorial Guinea are in the second automatic qualification spot with three points, with Ivory Coast first on four points.
All sides can still qualify, especially with the four third-placed sides across the tournament with the best record qualifying for the last-16 too. However, three of the four nations currently in third place have three points, meaning a draw for Algeria against Ivory Coast is unlikely to be good enough.
That means it's victory or nothing for Mahrez and his side, but even then qualification may not be guaranteed. If two or more sides are level on points, head-to-head matches between those sides are taken into account, meaning Algeria would finish below Equatorial Guinea if they both finish on four points.
With a goal difference of -1 compared to Ivory Coast's +1, victory by one goal would see both sides level on points and goal difference, and with Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone playing each other (both also have a goal difference of zero), a situation could arise where two or three teams are level on four points.
In that scenario, Algeria would finish above Ivory Coast having beaten them to reach four points, but below Equatorial Guinea. If Sierra Leone beat Equatorial Guinea, they are guaranteed a top-two finish and a placing above Algeria, as are Equatorial Guinea with a draw or victory.
Ivory Coast are guaranteed to finish in the top three, with four points likely good enough to progress as a third-placed side. The first two rounds mean Algeria cannot top their group any longer, so they will face one of Gambia, Mali or Tunisia in the last-16 if they qualify as runners up. A third-placed finish could set up a daunting clash with Nigeria or Cameroon.
Algeria have it all to do and need some Mahrez magic after a stale two games so far without scoring. If they don't get the win they need, the winger could be returning to Manchester at the earliest opportunity and certainly earlier than they will have planned.
In theory, if Algeria are knocked out of AFCON with defeat or a draw on Thursday, he could return to England for City's game at Southampton two days later. He regularly speaks of his love at playing every few days, but surely such a quick turnaround after what would be a great disappointment and long-haul flight will rule him out of contention.
After that, City have a week off for a winter break, and their next game is against Fulham in the FA Cup on February 5. If Algeria do sneak through, but fall at the last-16 or quater-final stage, he could be back in good time for that clash.
Should they turn their rotten start around and reach the semi-finals, which take place on February 2-3, he would be ruled out of that cup clash against City's Championship opponents, as even defeat in the last-four would set up a third-place play-off on the final day of February 6.
City's next Premier League fixture after the winter break and FA Cup sees them welcome Brentford to the Etihad on February 9, which could be the first game Mahrez is back for, depending on how long he gets off following the tournament.
While an early exit from AFCON would be disappointing for Mahrez, and would be a huge failure for the nation he captains, it could provide City a boost as they continue to battle with Covid and fitness absences. One more option in attack would give them a boost to ensure they arrive in February's return to three games a week with a squad as fresh as possible.
