Following a week of re-signings and new player acquisitions for the Miami Dolphins, the financial structure and future outlook of the team have been a topic of conversation.
At an initial glance, and just mentally tracking all the moves, one would assume that the Dolphins are setting themselves up for a one-and-done, or two-and-through situation, with their current roster and salary cap number.
Miami general manager Chris Grier and his partner in crime, VP of football and business administration Brandon Shore, work the salary cap together in tandem beautifully. When truly breaking down the numbers, the Dolphins aren’t in the same boat that other teams have been in recently in terms of choppy cap waters.
With only around $3.5 million in dead money, the Dolphins are very much unlike teams such as the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints, who not only found themselves heavily in the red part of the ledger recently, a lot of money is “dead” which comes from releasing and/or moving of players.
The Dolphins are a different animal (or mammal) here. The Rams are dealing with $52 million in dead cap money and the Saints $22.8 million. What’s interesting, but not a shock, is that the three NFL teams with the lowest “dead cap” number are the Cincinnati Bengals ($593,000), the Los Angeles Chargers ($2.18 million) and the Dolphins ($3.49 million).
Yes, the three teams here all have quarterbacks on their rookie deals, and we know that Tua Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option was picked up, so in 2024 he’ll be making a very economically friendly, $23.1 million, which is at least $17 million less than other quarterbacks who recently hit the $40 million per year club.
2024 will certainly provide a challenge for Grier and Shore to get back in the black because, at the exact moment in time, the Dolphins are over the cap next season by approximately $4.7 million. As for this season following the flurry of moves, they sit at around $9 million.
The good news is, this 2023 figure is pre-Byron Jones money becoming free, which would give Miami another $13.6 million in cap space once we get to June getting the breathing room to over $22 million. While the 2024 cap will be unaffected by the Jones situation, there are a pair of potential moves that can alleviate that stress rather simplistically.
Hold that thought.
Before getting into 2024, and looking more into 2025 and 2026, the Dolphins will have loads of money, but not many players who are under contract, logically. As it stands, the core players signed through 2026 for Miami are only Tyreek Hill, Xavien Howard, Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb, Jason Sanders and Jerome Baker.
In 2025, the list is a tad larger, if you want to include Emmanuel Ogbah, new defensive back Jalen Ramsey and the 2022 Miami rookie class of Skylar Thompson, Channing Tindall and Erik Ezukanma. 2025 has Miami at $126 million under the cap and in 2026 $175 million under. Ramsey even restructured his deal upon the trade with the Rams, which sent Hunter Long and a Miami 2023 third-round pick in return for the elite defensive back.
It seems that with the plethora of two-year deals handed out to free agents, and Dolphins from last season, 2023 and 2024 are certainly the “all-in” times, however, like any good gambler, Grier has left himself with outs, options and most importantly…money.
There’s a path to immediate success with a sustainable ability to build a consistent contender for the foreseeable future, as the goal is clearly to have a Super Bowl-caliber team before a massive quarterback contract needs to be signed.
That’s a 2025 problem, and potentially a terrific problem to have, if, in fact, Tagovailoa proves he’s deserving of a massive long-term deal. Now, when talking about massive quarterback deals, the problem tends to pair with it that players will have to be sacrificed to afford this. In some cases, yes, there will be player movement, as it’s easy to say that when you make an omelet, eggs will be broken.
The good news is, that in 2025, timing will benefit Miami, as it’s likely that the fifth-year options will be picked up on the contracts of Jaylen Waddle as well as Jaelan Phillips prior to May 1, 2024. The core members of this team, who many would love to picture as life-long Dolphins, will have tolerable cap situations the same season that Miami would ideally like to lock-up Tagovailoa.
Additionally, something that Grier is known for is his thrifty approach to the running back room. As he indicated yet again, he’s willing to shop, as rumors flew that there were discussions of potential trade talks for Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings. As it happens, this didn’t occur, and Grier is running it back with four returning Dolphins from last season.
Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin will all be back, and combine for a 2023 cap hit, collectively, of around $6.6 million. To compare, Cook alone has a 2023 contract worth $14 million.
That’s four players for less than half the price of one. And, for those who are upset, Grier is paying a discount for a group that collectively accounted for an average of well over 4.8 yards per carry on a team that rushed the ball 31st in the league in terms of 2022 overall attempts. That doesn’t scream paying one runner more than double the price of a full room of players.
Back to the cap clearance, the Dolphins have a pair of players, one on offense and one on defense, who could be potential trade targets. While these players are arguably outside of the Dolphins’ core, you can say that wide receiver Cedrick Wilson and Baker could be expendable and even have better opportunities elsewhere. Purely speculative, should Miami trade both of these players, that 2024 red cap number of -$4.77 million turns into $18.4 million.
Now that we laid a hypothetical pair of cap-friendly moves, the hope is that Grier can scoop up a few extra picks for April’s draft, thus creating a double-play of benefit in money trimming as well as increasing capital in a deep rookie class of specific positional need for the Dolphins.
Realizing there’s a lot to unpack and hope for here, Miami could create even more immediate room by restructuring Ogbah and perhaps another veteran down the line. As we see, Shore and Grier are masters of restructuring, so year to year, that can always be the play for the pair of executives in situations that warrant it.
Also realizing that money will have to be considered for the duo of Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler, as both are contracted in 2023, with Wilkins on his fifth-year option which was picked up last season. Wilkins, a 2019 first-round selection, will make $10.7 million this season, while he could create a $15 million+ per year valuation for himself in 2024 and beyond. Wilkins set a tackle mark in 2022 of 98, which was the highest seen from a defensive lineman since at least 1994.
Sieler, who’s criminally underrated on a national scale, was extended by Miami in 2020 and plays at a 2023 cap figure of $3.22 million. He could warrant close to $10 million per his market value. A rumored extension could be in the works again for Sieler, as the 27-year-old could get a deal structured in a way to be cap friendly for the next few seasons, especially looking at the 2025 and 2026 columns of the excel sheet.
Other names to look at as core players Miami will need to consider taking care of sooner than later are offensive lineman Robert Hunt, who is in the last year of his rookie deal, as well as Jevon Holland. Holland will be a free agent in 2025 and could warrant a massive deal to stay in Miami.
While there’ll be more players that will move on from Miami as Mike Gesicki, Thomas Morstead and Elandon Roberts did, the Dolphins have structured the roster to retain their key members for the long haul. With work always done behind the scenes by Grier and Shore, they’re the football/business versions of a swan. Ferociously working under the surface, while at a glance seems calm, cool and collected.
Miami is in a position where it isn’t now or never, in a perfect world, it could be now and later. And, regardless of anything else, everyone must realize that in 2019, the Dolphins were known as the league’s least-talented roster.
Despite it all, in just three seasons, one could argue that Miami now has one of the NFL’s deepest and scariest rosters. The rebuild is over, and the time is now to truly witness what has become the construction of a possible, perennial winner.
