Tons and tons of mail this week. So let’s waste no time ….
Inside today's mailbag:
- When the 49ers expect Brock Purdy to return
- What will the Patriots do once Belichick retires?
- International expansion talks
- QB value in the first round of the draft
- Surprise players that may be traded?
From Edgar Eduardo Tejada (@edgaretejada): What's the latest on the @49ers QB situation?
Edgar, we should have more information soon. I know the 49ers have had early-to-mid June (maybe a week before their mandatory minicamp, maybe the week before it) circled as to when they’ll be able to put a more firm timetable on Brock Purdy’s recovery. Right now, they don’t know, and Purdy doesn’t know, so San Francisco will go forward through the first couple weeks of real 11-on-11 work and get a good long look at Sam Darnold and Trey Lance.
The truth is, this creates a golden opportunity for those two. At best, Purdy will miss a good chunk of the summer and be hustling to get back for the opener. At worst, one of the two presumed backups will start the season. Either way, the chance is there for either Darnold or Lance to put some level of doubt in the Niners’ heads on who to go with at quarterback, and also create some buzz that could generate outside interest in 2024.
And I say all that with the acknowledgment that the Niners love Purdy, and view him as more than a plucky seventh-round pick who helped them in a bind last year—which means it’ll be an interesting spring and summer in Santa Clara, regardless of how this plays out.
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From Dave (@ChefdDds89): Who will handle personnel when Mayo takes over the Pats?
Dave, this is a pretty relevant question, because there are few coaches (none?) that can take on the amount of responsibility Bill Belichick does. Replacing him will mean replacing more than a head coach—it’ll also mean replacing a general manager, a vital negotiator and a cap manager. And that’ll be especially important if Robert Kraft follows through with the plan to promote Jerod Mayo to head coach when Belichick is done.
That’s not a knock on Mayo, by the way, who I believe will be an excellent head coach. It’s the reality that things are different in 2023 than they were in 2000, when Belichick first took the reins in New England, and foisting that amount of responsibility on any new coach, and especially a first-time head coach, would be, well, just plain unfair.
My feeling is that would lead Robert Kraft to hire his first general manager—the last person to hold the title in New England, Pat Sullivan (son of ex-Patriots owner Billy Sullivan), preceded Kraft’s time in charge. Maybe it’s Matt Groh, the current director of player personnel. Maybe it’s a top lieutenant like Eliot Wolf or Pat Stewart, both of whom held top two or three roles in personnel with other teams, and now have important roles with the Patriots. Maybe it’s someone from the outside. How the next year or two goes will be part of all that.
And yeah, I’m fence-riding here. But it’s a good, important question that I think has been forgotten in a lot of the post-Belichick conversation on the Patriots.
From Ritij Kapoor (@BrownMamba88): How exactly did the NFL decide on the Lions getting the Kickoff? Can't remember the last time a non-playoff team got it (outside a division rivalry)
Ritiji, I could answer that. But how about I give you what NFL VP of Broadcast Planning Mike North said to me instead. I started pointing out that over the last 10 years, only one division game has landed in the Kickoff slot (the Bears–Packers game that commemorated the start of the NFL’s 100th season).
“Any of the division opponents would’ve worked—Denver has a new coach, Las Vegas has a new quarterback, the Chargers with a really good existing quarterback, we could’ve done any of those,” said North. “Again, a little surprised we haven’t done a division game like that. We started thinking about the NFC North a little bit, Chicago was nothing if not exciting last year, a lot of interest in them with the quarterback having another year under his belt and the draft haul they got for the No. 1 pick.
“But once we started seeing Detroit as an option, it started to feel really interesting to us. We always say you play your way into primetime, you play your way into national television windows. And the last time we all saw Detroit, they were winning eight out of 10 games, and went into Lambeau and knocked the Packers out of the playoffs—so the definition of having earned your way into some additional national exposure. We’re really excited to see Detroit go in there and give Patrick Mahomes all he can handle.”
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
And accordingly, I do think the NFL saw benefit in using the Kickoff game—which will draw a big rating regardless—to amplify a team, rather than using a team to amplify a game that probably doesn’t need it.
As for your question on non-playoff teams playing in it, it’s really not that rare. Dallas missed the playoffs in 2020 and was in the kickoff game in ’21. Green Bay missed the playoffs in ’18 and was in the kickoff game in ’19 (the division matchup you’re referencing). And the Cowboys missed the playoffs in ’11 and were in the kickoff game in ’12. So it has happened.
The difference here, of course, is that the Packers and Cowboys carry iconic brands. The Lions aren’t on that level, which, in a roundabout way, is exactly why putting them on that season-opening stage can, in the long run, wind up benefiting everyone.
From Tyler Hergert (@TylerHergert): When there are expansion teams, would the NFL want those teams to be as successful as the two most recent expansion teams in the NHL?
Tyler, there’s actually a really good history lesson on this from the 1990s. The Jaguars and Panthers came into the NFL in ’95. In that year’s expansion draft, the 28 existing teams had to expose six players to be selected by Carolina and Jacksonville. Additionally, the Jaguars and Panthers also got the first two picks and the last two picks of every round. The result was those two became very competitive very quickly: The Panthers won seven games in their first year, and both made their respective conference title games in Year 2.
Conversely, in 1999, when the Browns returned, the other 30 teams had to expose just five players in the expansion draft, and Cleveland got the first pick in every round, but its extra selections started with a mid-second-rounder, followed by mid-round picks in each succeeding round (rather than an extra first-rounder, and sandwich picks in every round). Likewise, the Texans plucked from a list of five guys exposed by the 31 other teams, had the first pick in every round, and extra mid-round picks starting in the second round.
All that’s relevant because the rules that governed the Browns and Texans were widely seen as backlash against the early success of Carolina and Jacksonville. And I have no reason to believe the current group of owners would want to make things easier on another set of expansion teams, whenever the league would expand again. Speaking of that …
From The_Rel_World (@the_rel_world): How serious is expansion teams to Europe on a scale from 1 to 10?
Rel, I’d say it’s an 8. But if 10 is where logistics need to be, the NFL is a 3 or 4 in that area—which is to say if the NFL had those figured out, we’d have a team in London by now.
The NFL launched the London series in 2007 with a goal of getting a franchise there 15 years later. The reason why it didn’t happen by ’22 is mostly due to the obvious challenges that would come with putting a team over there. You can game up a regular season schedule, but what happens when Seattle has to go to London for a wild card game? And how would a London team work out, say, a handful of guards, or a few linebackers, on a Tuesday in-season when injuries hit? And which division gets the London team, and the travel that goes along with it?
I know the people in charge of NFL International were hoping advances in air travel might alleviate some of these problems. There have been ideas, too, to work around them. One would have the Falcons build a new facility closer to downtown and sell their facility, 45 minutes north of Atlanta, to the league, which would then use it as the US base for its London team (with Hartsfield’s reach in air travel making Atlanta an ideal spot). But, at least for now, there have been enough problems to keep the NFL from going.
Another solution would be the idea of adding an entire division of teams, rather than moving a team there. The question then would be how much revenue it’d add to the league’s coffers. For owners to justify it, the new teams would have to create a 12.5% uptick in revenue—which would account for four new pieces of a pie that’s split 32 ways already. That’d mean, based on the 2022 numbers, adding a minimum of $2.25 billion annually in revenue, with those numbers sure to rise with each passing year.
Could a European division do that? I don’t know. But until it can, or the logistics questions can be answered with putting a single team over there, I think the NFL keeps things as is, with a series of games over there, rather than franchise(s).
From Nathan (@GoForNathan): Will there ever be a future NFL Draft when a QB is not selected in the first round?
Nathan, I think the answer to that could actually be … yes. And the reason why is because the bar, as I see it, is rising for going all-in on a quarterback. We’ve written extensively this offseason about what Washington, Atlanta and Tampa are doing, in essentially kicking the can down the road at the position. And in one of those stories, I had a veteran exec compare the way the NFL is evolving now to what happened in the NBA with max contracts—where, at one point, too many players had them, and not enough were worth the price.
The concept is simple. Where does, say, the 12th best quarterback get you? Can you be good enough around him, if you’re in the AFC, to beat Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in succession? Or is it so hard to be that good around him you’re relegated to being like a second-tier NBA team, one that’s plenty good, but will never get past LeBron James and Steph Curry? And if that’s the case … would you be better off going with maybe the 25th best quarterback at a quarter of the price?
It wasn’t always this way, of course. Joe Flacco and Eli Manning got hot, and they both rode dominant defenses to Lombardi Trophies. Russell Wilson was largely a passenger on Seattle’s train to the 2013 title. But the NFL is changing and, again, the bar (and stakes) have been raised at the most important position on the field.
How could this affect the draft then? I think it already has. In 2022, teams didn’t force quarterbacks into the first round, and only one went that high, and that was with the 20th pick (Kenny Pickett). This year, Will Levis dropped out of the first round, I think largely on the above premise. So do I think there’s a chance a first round passes without a quarterback going, based on all this? I really do, way more so than I’d have thought five or 10 years ago.
From Troy (@_tmecham): What place are the Raiders going to take in the AFC West?
Third.
From Everything is AWESOME! (@BaBaBla19426799): Is the Panthers’ (Bears) first round pick top 10 next year?
Awesome, I say both the Bears’ slotted pick and the one they picked up from Carolina land somewhere between No. 11 and No. 18.
Right now, I’d pick the Saints to win the NFC South. But I think Carolina’s going to be right there, with a roster built to win now around cornerstones Brian Burns, Jaycee Horn, Ickey Ekwonu, and Jeremy Chinn, combined with an experienced, accomplished coaching staff pushing the buttons. Obviously, the swing factor for that talented group, one that did lose DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey over the last nine months, will be the quarterback.
As for the Bears, I think Justin Fields will make strides. I think Moore will make a difference. I think Matt Eberflus’s defense will grow. And I think the improvement on the lines of scrimmage (Nate Davis and DeMarcus Walker in free agency, Darnell Wright and Gervon Dexter in the draft) will make Chicago a lot more competitive on a week-to-week basis.
On top of that, the Packers are replacing Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikings are resetting a bit. That, to me, probably generates a division win or two that wasn’t there last year.
So do I think the Bears make the playoffs? Probably not. But in a watered-down NFC, I don’t think flirting with .500, with a strong finish built into that, is out of the question.
That’ll leave Chicago in a good place going into 2024, both as a team, and with draft picks.
From DubZillA (@Rcisneros87): What type of impact would a trade for Quinnen Williams have on the Raiders?
Dub, I’m gonna do you a favor—get that idea out of your head. It’d make no sense for the Jets to trade him. They’re all in for 2023. The negotiation hasn’t gone the way Williams has liked, clearly, to this point. They have plenty of time to get something done.
Also, remember, with the holdout rules being what they are, this is the time for players to really rattle cages. So if a third- or fourth-year guy isn’t pleased with the pace of talks, he absolutely should use May and June to not show up, talk passive-aggressively about his team, and, sure, scrub his social media of any reference to the employer.
It’s where Deebo Samuel was a year ago. And, yes, sometimes these things boil over like Jamal Adams’s situation with the Jets did a couple summers ago. But New York is in a much different position now than it was then. I’d guess a deal gets done here in July or so, and everyone forgets this ever happened by August. Sorry, to all the fans who think their teams might be getting him.
From Patrick Sheehan (@SheenyWrldPeace): Who's a player that hasn't been talked about being moved before the start of the season that you could see getting traded?
From Justin Duepp (@jdiz1617): Who is a surprise name that could get cut or traded this offseason?
Patrick and Justin, I asked around a little on your questions and got you a few names to keep an eye on …
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY NETWORK
• Browns TE Harrison Bryant’s name was raised, and I know the Browns would at least look to other teams on him, with David Njoku entrenched and the 2020 fourth-rounder headed into a contract year.
• Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins seems intent on making the $19.45 million he’s due, so someone would have to take that on to trade for him. The reason he’s still in Arizona is no one’s been willing to.
• The draft-pick price on Jerry Jeudy (~first-round pick) and Courtland Sutton (~second-round pick) was too rich for other teams before the draft, and it’d probably cost more to get them now. But Denver might not hang up on you if you call.
• Corey Davis’s name has been floated out there a little, largely due to his $13.67 million cap number. But it’s hard to see another team giving the Jets what they’d need to part with a receiver now, given Rodgers is aboard.
• I don’t think Arizona has any intention on dealing Budda Baker. But if you’re looking for a safety, it’d be worth calling the Titans on Kevin Byard.
• The Bengals’ commitment to get their line right tells me they aren’t moving Jonah Williams, who is working back to full health and plans to be at all of Cincinnati’s mandatory stuff. But, again, if you really need a tackle, I think they’d listen.
• If you’re looking for a reclamation project, Jacksonville’s K’Lavon Chaisson would be one, and it’d hardly be a shocker to see him moved during camp.
From Sean Labar (@seanlabarpr): Can Sam Howell be the future franchise QB in DC?
Sean, I don’t know, and I don’t think the Commanders do yet either. But everything he did last year convinced them to give him a shot—from how the defensive players talked about him in camp, how the receivers said he was throwing them open on the scout team, how he absorbed the offense when he became the backup midseason and, then, to how he played against Dallas in Week 18. The Commanders also had high grades on him going into his final year at UNC, and even coming out of it. (He was marked a second- or third-rounder.)
They took him in the fifth round, despite plans to not take a quarterback at all as a vote of confidence in Carson Wentz. They were compelled to do it anyway, based on the grade. Howell backed up their thinking as much as he could last year, and now he gets a longer look. We, and they, will see how it goes.
From Dre Lapen (@Rams2346): Will the Rams sign a outside free agent not named Rypien lol
Dre, I appreciate the question. We wrote on Monday what a different type of roster the Rams have—a couple days ago, they were carrying a staggering 39 rookies. All of it is by design. After years of mortgaging contracts to win in the here and now (which very clearly worked), it was simply time to hit the reset button. So they’re carrying $75 million in dead cap, tied to players no longer on their team this year, to get a new reality in 2024, where they’ll have some $70 million in cap space and a full complement of draft picks.
Signing new, expensive free agents now would only undermine that clear-the-decks effort. So I don’t see it happening.
From Adam Zuckerman (@AZuckermanVA): Do you think the @BuffaloBills are likely to sign one of the marquee edge free agents still left on the market? Justin Houston? Leonard Floyd? etc. ... Or, are they done at that position for now?
Adam, the only way I see it happening is if Von Miller is behind schedule come summer. Otherwise, I see Buffalo continuing to develop A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham, with the expectation that they’ll get a little more from a growing core of pass-rushers. I think, for what it’s worth, that core will be plenty good enough.
From Talking Jets With Tigo (@JetsWithTigo): Does the NFL have any interest in turning the Black Friday game into a pseudo Thanksgiving game, where one team is a permanent fixture of the match-up? Assuming the rating of the Black Friday game does well and stick around. Also, is it considered a prime time game?
Tigo, the fact that they’ve talked about it publicly tells me that, yes, they are thinking about having a team be a fixture in that window. Ultimately, I don’t think it happens because Amazon already had its issues with its lineup last year—and I think the NFL is probably best served maintaining its flexibility in as many windows as possible.
And no, when we count primetime games, that one wouldn’t be counted. But it is, of course, a standalone game, and that does count for something.
I’m told the Browns haven’t really discussed bringing Zeke aboard. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Just that, to this point, it hasn’t been in their plans to.
