The Briefing:
- Rio de Janeiro is the only one of the three largest states where a Lula-backed candidate leads: Eduardo Paes (PSD) has 36% to Douglas Ruas's 23% in Quaest's survey.
- In São Paulo, Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas polls between 44% and 50% against Fernando Haddad's 27% to 30%, and one pollster's valid-vote math puts him above the first-round majority line.
- In Minas Gerais, Sen. Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) leads at 37% to 40%, and runoff tests against the PT's Patrus Ananias range from a 5-point edge to a 37-point one.
Six days before Brazil's Oct. 4 election, polls in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais show Lula's camp ahead in just one of them, Rio. In the other two, right-of-center candidates lead by double digits. Each governorship gives President Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro a large home-state base if the presidential race goes to an Oct. 25 runoff, and São Paulo alone counts 34.1 million voters.
São Paulo: Tarcísio Widens His 2022 Edge Over Haddad
Tarcísio beat Haddad in the 2022 runoff, and the two meet again. Quaest puts the governor at 44% and the Workers' Party candidate at 27%, with 56% of respondents unable to name a choice before candidate names were read. Datafolha shows a wider 50% to 30% gap, which translates to 56% of valid votes for Tarcísio, enough to end the contest in round one.
Haddad left the finance ministry in March and runs with Márcio França (PSB) as his vice-governor pick, according to Gazeta do Povo's candidate guide. Tarcísio's Republicanos is neutral in the presidential race, yet he joined Flávio Bolsonaro on stage at a Sept. 25 rodeo in Jaguariúna, an appearance that lasted under five minutes.
No third force emerges. The remaining names come from small left-wing parties, each at 2% or less in Datafolha, and the PSDB, which held the governor's office for 28 years, has no candidate this time.
Rio de Janeiro: Paes Leads, but the Size of His Lead Varies by Poll
Paes stepped down as Rio's mayor in March to run, and Lula supports him. His main rival, Ruas (PL), is 37, presides over the state legislature and previously served as the state's cities secretary, after starting in his father's municipal administration in São Gonçalo, per Alma Preta. Flávio Bolsonaro's camp is counting on him.
Datafolha has Paes at 43% in the first round. Quaest has him at 36%. In a two-way runoff, the distance between the candidates runs from roughly 10 points in AtlasIntel's valid-vote count to 16 in Datafolha. Paraná Pesquisas found 48.1% of voters undecided when names were not read out, though Paes still led with 43.1% to Ruas's 26.7% once they were.
Former governor Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) polls near 8%, yet his registration was rejected unanimously by the regional electoral court. His appeal is pending, and a TSE justice has temporarily allowed him to receive campaign funds and airtime. Newcomers such as André Marinho (Novo) and Coronel Busnello (Missão) round out nine registered candidates.
Minas Gerais: The Frontrunner Who Fits Neither Camp
Cleitinho, a gospel musician and businessman who climbed from Divinópolis's city council to the Senate, holds 37% in Quaest and 40% in Datafolha, where he reaches 49% of valid votes, just short of a first-round win. Patrus Ananias (PT) sits at 15% to 16%, and Lula campaigned beside him in Montes Claros on Sept. 17.
The runoff picture has shifted. A Real Time Big Data survey a week ago showed a technical tie, but its newest poll, released today, gives Cleitinho 46% to 41%. Quaest has him ahead 50% to 26%, and Datafolha 60% to 23%.
His alignment is the real story. Cleitinho announced support for Flávio Bolsonaro on Aug. 16 and repeated it at an early-September rally against Lula, even though his party officially stays neutral nationally. He has also gained the backing of a PT mayor, and PL Senate candidate Domingos Sávio, who sits on the PL's own gubernatorial ticket, endorsed him on Sept. 21. The PL's official candidate, Flávio Roscoe, polls at 5% in Datafolha.
Alexandre Kalil (PDT) has 8% to 9%. Gov. Mateus Simões (PSD), who inherited the office when Romeu Zema resigned to run for president, has 5% to 7%.
Who Aligns With Whom
| Candidate | State | Camp | Latest figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) | SP | Bolsonaro-aligned | 44% (Quaest) |
| Fernando Haddad (PT) | SP | Lula | 27% (Quaest) |
| Eduardo Paes (PSD) | RJ | Lula-backed | 36% (Quaest) |
| Douglas Ruas (PL) | RJ | Bolsonaro-aligned | 23% (Quaest) |
| Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) | MG | Backs Flávio, courts both sides | 40% (Datafolha) |
| Patrus Ananias (PT) | MG | Lula | 15% (Datafolha) |
| Flávio Roscoe (PL) | MG | Bolsonaro's party | 5% (Datafolha) |
What to Watch on Sunday
A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to avoid a second round, the rule for all three states. Tarcísio's and Cleitinho's Datafolha valid-vote shares, 56% and 49%, sit on opposite sides of that line. How comfortably Paes clears Ruas in Rio is the third number likely to echo in the national race.
