The pressure to win in NASCAR is possibly greater than it has ever been. A win automatically locks a driver into the playoffs, making them one of 16 with a shot at the championship.
Looking through the field of full-time drivers, six have gone at least 50 races since their most recent trip to Victory Lane. Let’s take a look at this group and see who has the best chance to end their dry-spell next season.
Justin Haley - 105 races
The longest active winless streak. Haley’s victory at Daytona in July, 2019 was all about being in the right place at the right time. Making just his third career Cup start, he stayed out while others pitted during a caution period. Soon after, the rain arrived and he was declared the race winner. Haley hasn’t won at the Cup level since that day, but he’s come close. When Shane van Gisbergen took a stunning win on debut at the Chicago Street Course, it was Haley who he had to pass in the closing laps.
Haley now moves from Kaulig Racing to Rick Ware Racing for the 2024 season. RWR has never won a Cup race, but neither had Spire until Haley’s 2019 victory at Daytona. Should he reach Victory Lane next year, it would be quite the upset. I wouldn’t expect it to happen but with Haley’s proven ability at superspeedways, I would never completely rule it out.
Brad Keselowski - 98 races
For Keselowski, it’s a matter of when, not if he wins again. With 35 wins as a Cup Series driver, he is without question the most successful full-time driver on this unfortunate list. The 2012 Cup champion left a comfortable position at Team Penske with the aim to help rebuild the Roush Fenway Racing team, joining as both a driver and co-owner.
His work has paid off with both cars making the 2023 playoffs and Chris Buescher winning three races, but Keselowski himself remains winless since joining RFK.
His most recent victory came at Talladega in April, 2021. He’s gotten agonizingly close to getting his first win with RFK, but it just hasn't happened yet. However, it feels inevitable at this point. I’d be shocked if this driver goes another year without snapping his winless streak, so I’ll go on the record to say that it will finally go Brad’s way in 2024.
Austin Cindric - 71 races
Cindric has just one win at the Cup level, taking the checkered flag in NASCAR’s biggest race as a rookie driver. But ever since winning the Daytona 500 in February, 2022, it’s been a struggle for the Team Penske driver.
While his team-mates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have gone onto win back-to-back titles for Penske, he has yet to return to Victory Lane. The team appeared to take a step back from 2022 to 2023, and I'm not confident that we'll see any major improvements next year.
Chase Briscoe - 68 races
Briscoe is now the only driver among the four-car Stewart-Haas Racing team to have won at the Cup level, but it’s been nearly two seasons since that day.
He won at Phoenix in March, 2022, taking advantage of the level playing field with the introduction of the Next Gen car. Since then, SHR has fallen behind and Briscoe scored just one top-five this year.
With the departure of both Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola, he becomes the most senior member of the race team. They'll be a lot of pressure for the entire organization to get things turned around in 2024, or else it will be another fruitless year for Briscoe and SHR. Unfortunately, I think their struggles will continue into the new season, but perhaps the updated Ford body will help them to right the ship.
Alex Bowman - 61 races
It’s been a difficult stretch for this Hendrick Motorsports driver. A concussion late in the 2022 season and a back injury early in the 2023 season haven’t helped in his efforts to return to Victory Lane.
His most recent win came at Las Vegas in March, 2022, beating team-mate Kyle Larson. Bowman is a proven winner with seven victories at the highest level of the sport, but there’s just something missing with this No. 48 team right now.
He will now completely focus on his Cup efforts, recently announcing that he will put his dirt racing efforts on hold. I do believe he comes back stronger in 2024 and become a winner once again.
Daniel Suarez - 56 races
Suarez earned his first and only Cup win to date at Sonoma in June, 2022. This Trackhouse Racing driver has flirted with victory a few times after his Sonoma triumph. He had a shot to win from pole at the Indy RC last summer, ultimately finishing third. He was also second in the rain-shortened Atlanta race.
But Trackhouse are the most recent winners at the Cup level, taking victory in the Cup finale at Phoenix with Ross Chastain. The cars are fast, but this No. 99 team just needs to put all pieces together.
Unforced errors and just bad luck have hindered their efforts, but I believe they will enjoy a far smoother 2024. In fact, I'll go one step further and claim that Suarez will win on an oval for the first time in his Cup career.
Another winless streak to watch
Although not full-time, I’d also like to mention seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson. The co-owner of Legacy Motor Club ranks sixth on the all-time wins list, but his 83rd career win came over six years ago in June, 2017 at Dover.
He will make a handful of appearances next year, driving the No. 84 machine. His goal is to help strengthen LMC as it switches to Toyota for the 2024 season, guiding Erik Jones and John-Hunter Nemechek in their efforts.
But if the opportunity arises, you know this veteran racer will do whatever he can to end that 133-race winless streak.
