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Fortune
Fortune
W. Joseph Campbell

Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracy

(Credit: MIGUEL J. RODRIGUEZ CARRILLO - AFP - Getty Images)

Election polls may seem cheerless, inscrutable, and wrapped in data and murky terminology. But on close examination, it’s clear they possess and project an unexpected degree of entertainment value—as cartoonists, late-night comedians, and pollsters, themselves, have periodically noted over the years.

This seldom-recognized feature may help explain the enduring popular appeal of election polls, despite a checkered record for accuracy, especially in U.S. presidential elections. In one way or another, polls misfired in the campaigns of 2012, 2016, and 2020. Their collective performance four years ago was their worst since 1980.

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