London’s mayoral race was electrified in its last 48 hours by a final poll showing Sadiq Khan’s lead over Susan Hall closing to the smallest since their campaigns started.
The Savanta survey for the Centre for London put the Labour mayor on 42 per cent and Tory candidate 32 per cent.
The gap of ten percentage points is down from 13 points in a Savanta poll published last week.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta said: “Our final poll before Londoners choose their next Mayor suggests that the race has tightened in the last few days before polling day.
“Of course there remains a high level of uncertainty around this election, with changes to the electoral system and voter ID laws making cast-iron predictions challenging, but the findings still suggest a closer race than many are bargaining for.”
He added: “While we still predict a broadly comfortable victory for Khan over Hall, our research has consistently suggested that the current Mayor has serious challenges as a candidate.
“Londoners seem divided on his time in office so far - and a different, more popular opponent could have made a difference.”
The survey showed Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie on ten per cent, Green Party candidate Zoe Garbett on eight per cent, and Reform UK’s Howard Cox on three per cent.
Mr Khan is ahead of Ms Hall in Inner London by 45 per cent to 26 per cent, and also in Outer London by 41 per cent to 36 per cent.
He also has a big lead among women in the capital, by 45 per cent to 28 per cent, while he is also ahead among men but by a far smaller margin, 40 per cent 37 per cent.
The latest findings by Savanta contrast with a poll by YouGov on Tuesday, using a different methodology, which showed Mr Khan having a 22-point lead over Ms Hall.
At the start the mayoral race, several polls put the Labour contender 24 to 25 points ahead.
But both Labour and Conservative MPs expect the final result to be closer, particularly with the switch to the first-past-the-post voting system and photo ID being needed to to vote on Thursday.
In April 2021, Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey trailed Mr Khan by around 20 points and the gap in the final result was half this which is believed to have been partly down to “undecided” voters opting late to back the former and the low turnout.
Even in the final stages of this race, one in six (17 per cent) of voters say they may still change their mind before polling day on May 2, according to the Savanta poll.
One in five Londoners, 22 per cent, wrongly say they do not need voter ID to take part in Thursday’s elections, a figure which rises to 31 per cent among adults aged 18 to 34.
Eighteen per cent of Londoners say they either don’t know or don’t believe there is an election.
Forty per cent of Londoners say they are dissatisfied with Mr Khan’s performance as mayor and 35 per cent are satisfied.
Labour has a 30 point lead in voting intentions in London for the Westminster Parliament, on 53 per cent compared to the Tories 23 per cent.
Antonia Jennings, Chief Executive at Centre for London, said: “Susan Hall’s ability to poll higher than her own party in Westminster indicates Londoners’ disappointment with Khan’s record to date.
“Running for an unprecedented third term, he is likely to be judged not on his manifesto like Hall, but on his widespread record in his last eight years as Mayor.
However, we cannot discuss Sadiq Khan’s record and disregard how centralised power is in the UK.
“Compared with other capital cities, London’s devolution deal is measly.
“Fiscal powers – the ability to raise taxes – are particularly lacking, meaning London’s Mayor remains heavily constrained by national government budgets.
“With each new poll, we have seen Londoners spotlight the same issues time and again – housing, the cost-of-living and crime. To enable our next Mayor to properly tackle the problems facing London, we need devolution, to bring policymaking closer to the people it affects.”
* Savanta interviewed 1,557 adults in London online between April 26 and 30. Data are weighted. Full details will be available at savanta.com/knowledge-centre/published-polls/
