Labour is braced for a brutal set of local, Scottish and Welsh election results that will define either the next phase of Keir Starmer’s prime ministership or bring about the end of it. Party strategists expect losses of close to 2,000 seats across England, Wales and Scotland but the damage could be a lot worse. The danger for the prime minister is not whether Labour loses heavily but where those losses come from and who those voters turn to.
Across England, Reform UK is hoping to turn public anger over immigration, living standards and distrust of Westminster into local power. In progressive cities, the Greens believe voters are ready to punish Labour from the left, while in parts of Blackburn, Birmingham and east London the independents are continuing to capitalise on anger over Gaza.
