Voters have heard the pledges and promises of four Conservative prime ministers since the last time this set of authorities were up for election in May 2019. Theresa May faced enormous pressure to quit after a bad set of results and she resigned in June that year.
Keir Starmer will be hoping to reap the rewards of Labour’s 18-point lead over the Conservatives. The Tories, who launched their local election campaign with little fanfare, have been in heavy expectation-management mode, predicting losses of more than 1,000 seats.
Commentators predict that Tory losses of even 500 seats would mean trouble for Rishi Sunak’s authority. But Labour also has a lot to prove, with more than 8,000 council seats across 230 authorities in England up for election on Thursday.
Here are the key seats and timings to look out for.
Early hours of Friday
2am Results from Thurrock will begin to emerge, where the Conservatives hold a majority with 29 councillors, which they are desperate to keep.
3am North East Lincolnshire has emerged as a key battleground for Labour, as the council has been controlled by the Tories since 2019. As results flow in, Starmer’s allies will be keen to see whether “red wall” voters are willing to really give Labour a chance. A number of issues could affect whether voters will lend the Tories their vote once more, including government plans to house asylum seekers in the RAF Scampton base within this council area, which has cropped up as a doorstep issue despite the base being outside the council area.
4am Labour will hope to steal an early victory as results emerge from Plymouth city council, one of its targets. It is led by a Conservative minority administration, after Richard Bingley was sacked after a row over tree-felling. Labour is confident it can make gains in the bellwether council, but an outright majority could be difficult given only a third of the council is up for grabs.
Friday morning
6am Starmer has campaigned in the Conservative-run council of Medway twice in the run-up to polling day to insist the party is “positive and united” and has a “fighting chance”. Labour will hope to win the unitary authority for the first time since its creation in 1998. The council is now made up of 33 Tory councillors and 20 from Labour.
Results from Stoke-on-Trent, Tameside and South Gloucestershire will also start to emerge at around this time.
Friday afternoon
Noon Results from Solihull will arrive, where the Conservatives are defending a narrow majority which is under threat from the Green party and the Liberal Democrats.
2pm The Conservatives will be keeping a close eye on whether they can make gains in Torbay council, which is run by a coalition of the Lib Dems and independents.
4pm A single gain in Gravesham council would give Labour an outright majority. Labour would love to gain a toehold in Kent, where the Tories hold 16 out of 17 constituencies.
The Greens will be hoping to become the largest party in Mid Suffolk. In the 2019 elections, the Greens managed to pick up 34% of the vote share, almost double their count in 2015.
The Liberal Democrats hope to overturn several slim Tory majorities in the south-east council of Cherwell.
Friday evening
5pm Results from Bolsover will show whether Starmer has boosted Labour. A failure to win this council, which has a mix of independent councillors, will be deemed a bad result for the party.
Eyes will be on Leicester’s mayoral election when results are due in from the traditionally Labour-held council, nicknamed “Red Leicester”. The party has held overall control of the city council since 2007 and it holds 47 of the 54 seats. Sir Peter Soulsby has held the mayoral role since 2011 but the party may struggle this year – with all of its council seats and mayoral role up for grabs – after 19 sitting councillors, the majority of them from black, Asian or minority ethnic backgrounds, were deselected by Labour’s national committee.
6pm In Cheshire West and Chester council, Labour is the single largest party and will be hoping to win an outright majority.
• This article was amended on 4 May 2023 to clarify a reference to RAF Scampton, which is outside the North East Lincolnshire council area. Also, this council has been controlled by the Tories only since 2019, not 2011 as a previous version said.
