What would constitute a good night or a bad night for the main parties in Thursday’s local elections?
Labour
Good night: Gains of 600 or more council seats point to a substantial red wave, with a strong advance registered in both strongly leave-leaning “red wall” territory and more moderate, traditionally marginal areas. Labour secures a BBC projected national share above 40% and a 10-point plus lead over the Conservatives – both performances are the best since Blair was opposition leader. Things can only get better?
Bad night: The swing to Labour comes in below expectations, with 400 seats or fewer gained. Labour leaking support to Greens and Liberal Democrats in remain areas, and the Conservative vote holding up in leave areas. BBC projected national share of 36%, little better than last year, and below Ed Miliband’s best showing in 2012. High hopes are dashed, and anxious whispers return.
Conservatives
Good night: Armageddon avoided. More than 600 seats are lost, but this is offset by some gained back from local parties and independents for a net loss of 500 or fewer – a decline well below the electoral cataclysm briefed by government allies. The Conservative vote holds up in leave areas, and the BBC projects a national share above the 28% low point recorded in 2019. The Labour lead is kept in single digits and hope is kept alive. A bounce back with Sunak?
Bad night: A slump in the Conservative vote, and more than a thousand seats lost. The BBC projected national share falls below 25%, making this the worst local elections result in four decades. There are big swings to Labour in leave and remain battlegrounds, but losses also to both the Lib Dems and Greens in suburban England as the Conservatives leak support to challengers from all quarters. More 1997 than 1992?
Lib Dems
Good night: A BBC projected national share of 21%, the best since 2010, suggests the third party is recovering its pre-coalition potency in local elections. Lib Dems hold nearly all their sweeping gains from 2019, and make further substantial inroads in the remain-leaning southern England commuter belt, with more than 100 seats gained. Substantial advances in areas where the party hopes to challenge Conservative MPs next year. Nervous days ahead for Dominic Raab, John Redwood and Jeremy Hunt.
Bad night: The party falls back from its 2019 high point, with a BBC projected national share of 17%, and a modest net advance of fewer than 50 seats. Hopes of a return to pre-coalition strength are dashed. Some seats gained as the Conservatives fall back, but these are offset by seats picked up in the 2019 surge returning to the Conservative fold. Disappointing results raise questions about the party’s competitiveness in the “blue wall”, particularly in places where Conservative MPs start with substantial majorities.
Greens
Good night: Well over a hundred seats gained, and strong performances across the board. They are entrenched as the main local opposition in areas such as Solihull and Mid Suffolk. With major gains in every local election since 2019, which was itself a record result, the Greens are established as a force to be reckoned with in English local elections.
Bad night: More seats lost than gained as the party falls back from a 2019 high point. Disappointing performances in the many wards where Green candidates stood for the first time, raising questions about whether the party has spread itself too thin. Labour and Lib Dem recovery pushes Greens to the margins, and suggests the 2019 result may have been an outlier driven by a strong anti-politics mood.
Reform UK
Good night: The first substantial cohort of Reform UK local election candidates post strong showings in a number of heavily leave areas, suggesting voters on the Brexit right are restive once more. Tory backbenchers representing heavily leave-supporting seats will be nervous about the risk of a split Brexit vote next year.
Bad night: Reform UK’s first big slate of candidates is a flop, making little impression in the areas where they stand. The new party is a pale shadow of its Ukip predecessor, suggesting the long and arduous process of leaving the EU has sated the appetite for revolt on the Brexit-aligned right wing of politics. Nigel Farage goes a bit quieter, and Conservative MPs breathe a little easier.
