It’s long been assumed the Queensland election of October 26 – to elect the state’s 58th (and second fixed, four-year) parliament – would be a tough ask for a tired-looking Labor government seeking a rare fourth term.
Having won the 2020 COVID-19 election with primary and two-party-preferred swings to it – and with a net gain in seats – Labor was always likely to suffer a major correction in 2024.
But few then could have anticipated just how large that correction would be. A Freshwater Strategy poll, the most recently released, has pegged Labor’s primary vote at just 30% (down 9.6 points from 2020). The Liberal-National Party (LNP) opposition is on 43% (up 7.1), the Greens (poised to seize between two and five seats in inner Brisbane) on 12% (up 2.5), Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party (PHON) on 8% (up 0.9) and others on 7% (up 1.3).
