The Australian share market has closed lower as investors braced for global interest rate hikes this week, and the fallout from the federal government's energy plans became clearer.
See how the trading day unfolded on our live blog.
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
Key events
Live updates
Market close snapshot at 4:35pm AEDT
By Michael Janda
ASX 200: Down 0.5 per cent to 7,181
All Ords: Down 0.5 per cent to 7,371
Aussie dollar: 67.73 US cents
On Wall Street (Friday): Dow down 0.9 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.7 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.7 per cent.
In Europe (Friday): Stoxx 600 up 0.8 per cent, FTSE up 0.1 per cent, DAX up 0.7 per cent
Spot gold: Down 0.5 per cent at $US1,787 an ounce
Brent crude: Up 0.5 per cent to $US76.49 a barrel
Iron ore: Up 1.5 per cent to $US112.40 a tonne
Bitcoin: Down 1.4 per cent to $US16,938
Glimpse into the future
By Michael Janda
As I say good afternoon, dear readers, a quick glimpse into the future.
In very early trade, Wall Street's S&P 500 futures index is down 0.1 of a per cent, but that could swing a lot before trade starts there tonight.
Futures on European markets were also moderately lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5 per cent.
Across Asia, most markets fell, but the scale of declines was mixed.
By 4:50pm AEDT, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 1.7 per cent, the Shanghai Composite down 0.5 per cent, and the Nikkei down 0.2 per cent.
Until next time:
ASX ends lower as Origin slumps
By Michael Janda
The Australian share market has closed down half a per cent, with gas producer and energy producer and retailer Origin falling 7.8 per cent.
The company has taken the biggest share price hit so far from the federal government's move to cap gas and coal prices for the next year.
RBC energy analyst Gordon Ramsay believes Origin is potentially the most affected of Australia's gas producers, and there is a risk that a North American consortium offering $9 a share to buy it out may now walk away from the deal.
Under a price cap scenario, Origin would get lower pricing for its APLNG domestic gas sales volumes. This is mainly because of the short-term nature of its APLNG domestic gas supply contracts.
The APLNG project (ORG 27.5%) has been a net contributor to the domestic market and provided 150 petajoules (more than 65%) of the total 230 PJ supplied from the Queensland based LNG projects to the Australian East Coast domestic market in FY22.
Origin shares closed at $7.19, with the utilities index down 4.2 per cent.
Pure play energy companies gained however, with Woodside up 2.7 per cent as oil prices rose and investors sought the safety of a predominantly west coast producer.
Elsewhere on the market, gold producers in particular drove the mining sector down.
Overall, 128 out of the top 200 companies fell, while 58 gained.
Chemicals industry welcomes gas price cap
By Michael Janda
While the gas industry is outraged, Australia's chemical manufacturing sector has enthusiastically welcomed the federal government's plan for a price cap.
Chemistry Australia chief executive Samantha Read said many companies would have faced tough decisions over the next 12 months without the cap.
Affordable gas is essential for Australia to allow continued investment in its domestic manufacturing industries, which will be critical to the delivery of decarbonisation solutions such as hydrogen and green ammonia."
It is also a key enabler of technologies including advanced recycling of plastics to support Australia's transition to a circular economy.
The measures will help ensure the Australian chemistry industry continues to deliver $38 billion to the economy and support 212,000 direct and indirect jobs.
A 12-month price cap will provide necessary short-term relief for manufacturers facing investment decisions in the next year.
The organisation's members include global and local industry giants such as 3M, Air Liquide, BASF, BOC, Dow, Dulux, Incitec Pivot, Nufarm, Orica and Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy and Fertilisers, as well as several universities and the CSIRO.
Telstra apologises for publishing private numbers
By Michael Janda
Telstra's chief financial officer Michael Ackland has appeared on ABC News Breakfast to explain how the company accidentally made publicly accessible more than 130,000 names, addresses and phone numbers that were intended to be private.
"It's an error between those databases that we discovered through our regular audit and reconciliation processes," he said.
"We've now gone and removed all of that data that was published where a customer legitimately requested us not to publish it."
You can read more details here:
Gas industry and commodity analysts raise concerns about price cap
By Michael Janda
The government's gas and coal pricing cap is proving to be the most contentious part of its program to restrain a blowout in energy prices.
The proposals have seen gas producer and electricity generator Origin energy hit hard with a 7.6 per cent sell-off to $7.205 by 2:20pm AEDT, while AGL was down 2.25 per cent.
CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said the industry is looking for further detail around parts of the proposal to generally cap gas prices at $12/gigajoule and thermal coal prices at $125/tonne for 12 months.
He warns that, while lowering prices in the short-term, it may lead to reduced supply and higher prices once the cap ends.
The biggest surprise in the gas price controls was the proposed 'reasonable pricing provision.'
The provision will apply to gas being supplied beyond the period of the price cap and for gas to be supplied from currently undeveloped gas fields.
One of the key objectives of the 'reasonable pricing provision' is to ensure that local gas prices "reflect costs of production" and allow "for a reasonable return on capital." How this is managed, while having the objective of maintaining "incentives for investment in new sources of supply", is a key market concern.
A price cap and a 'reasonable pricing provision' will mean that gas demand will be stronger than otherwise.
The 'reasonable pricing provision' will also weigh on new gas investment. This means that new gas supply will likely be weaker than otherwise.
Stronger demand and weaker supply of natural gas will likely bring forward any gas shortfall outcome in the east coast.
The gas industry lobby group expressed similar concerns in an interview between the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association's chief executive Samantha McCulloch and RN Breakfast presenter Patricia Karvelas.
Can the economy grow without killing the planet?
By Michael Janda
#ICYMI, an excellent analysis piece from my colleague Gareth Hutchens on the future of environmental accounting.
Our economic growth doesn't occur in a vacuum.
It still depends on the extraction and burning of fossil fuels and the exploitation of other elements of nature.
To achieve the latest quarter of economic growth, how many more hectares of native forest were logged, how many more animal species became extinct, and how much more plastic did we pump into the environment?
We're never told.
But imagine if that kind of environmental information was published alongside the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figure.
It's well worth taking a few minutes to read the rest.
Market snapshot at 12:50pm AEDT
By Michael Janda
ASX 200: Down 0.6 per cent to 7,172
All Ords: Down 0.6 per cent to 7,361
Aussie dollar: 67.58 US cents
On Wall Street (Friday): Dow down 0.9 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.7 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.7 per cent.
In Europe (Friday): Stoxx 600 up 0.8 per cent, FTSE up 0.1 per cent, DAX up 0.7 per cent
Spot gold: Down 0.4 per cent at $US1,790 an ounce
Brent crude: Up 0.9 per cent to $US76.77 a barrel
Iron ore: Up 1.5 per cent to $US112.40 a tonne
Bitcoin: Down 1.1 per cent to $US16,963
ASX still tracking lower at lunch
By Michael Janda
The Australian share market is still down at the middle of the trading day, and energy utility companies continue to lead the losses.
The benchmark ASX 200 index was down half a per cent at 7,176 points by 12:40pm AEDT, and the broader All Ordinaries was off just a touch more at 7,366.
The decline was broad-based, with 145 out of the top 200 companies sitting in the red around lunchtime in the east.
Energy utility companies were still dominating the falls (down 3.4 per cent) following the federal government's move to cap coal and gas prices, with Origin off 7.4 per cent to $7.225.
The biggest loser on the ASX 200 was Nanosonics, down 11.2 per cent to $4.30.
Smaller gold miners were also booking steep losses as the precious metal backed away from $US1,800 an ounce.
Rental bidding to end in NSW before Christmas
By Michael Janda
The New South Wales government has announced plans to ban the practice of "rental bidding" where prospective tenants effectively engage in a silent auction by offering more than the advertised rent, often encouraged by real estate agents or landlords.
The NSW government said it would use regulation to prohibit the auction-style practice by Christmas.
Under the proposed changes, prospective renters won't be able to offer a higher price than what's advertised to secure a property.
Real estate agents will also only be allowed to advertise a property with a fixed rental price.
ABC News NSW reporter Danielle Mahe has more:
WA gold miners St Barbara and Genesis to merge into Hoover House
By Michael Janda
Western Australian-based gold miners St Barbara and Genesis have announced a merger.
The two companies have mining assets around the Leonora region of WA and St Barbara's chair Tim Netscher said the merger offers operational efficiencies.
"The merger with our Leonora neighbour, Genesis, to create Hoover House, will accelerate our Leonora Province Plan.
"Shareholders will reap the benefits of more production at lower cost and lower risk from this prolific mining district.
"A significant component of the value delivered by the creation of Hoover House is the unique synergies delivered by the resultant combination of assets, such as the ability to sensibly stage the development of the various orebodies and to match one party's ore to the other party's mill capacity."
The companies said that their merger would eliminate or defer the need for an estimated $400 million in capital spending for the neighbouring mines.
Genesis shareholders are being offered 2.0338 new St Barbara shares for every share they own, while Genesis is also required to raise $275 million in capital to bring into the deal.
The new company will be headquartered in Perth and named Hoover House.
In order to focus on the Leonora mines, St Barbara will also spin off its overseas gold assets into a new ASX-listed company called Phoenician Metals Limited, with shares in the new firm going to its shareholders and Hoover House expected to retain a 20 per cent stake.
Energy companies dominate ASX falls
By Michael Janda
The real estate sector was the only one posting modest gains, while the utilities sector was down sharply, led by Origin and AGL, as the federal government moves to cap gas and coal prices to keep a lid on household power bills.
Overall, three-quarters of the top 200 companies on the ASX were losing ground in early trade, while the utilities sector was down a large 4.2 per cent.
ABC News political reporter Georgia Hitch has the latest on where the government is up to with its plans to get coal and gas price caps plus energy bill assistance through the parliament this week.
Market snapshot at 10:20am AEDT
By Michael Janda
ASX 200: Down 0.7 per cent to 7,164
All Ords: Down 0.7 per cent to 7,355
Aussie dollar: 67.9 US cents
On Wall Street (Friday): Dow down 0.9 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.7 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.7 per cent.
In Europe (Friday): Stoxx 600 up 0.8 per cent, FTSE up 0.1 per cent, DAX up 0.7 per cent
Spot gold: Flat at $US1,796 an ounce
Brent crude: Up 1.3 per cent to $US77.10 a barrel
Iron ore: Up 1.5 per cent to $US112.40 a tonne
Bitcoin: Down 0.2 per cent to $US17,100
ASX falls in early trade
By Michael Janda
The Australian share market is down in early trade, matching declines by Wall Street's benchmark index on Friday.
The ASX 200 index was 0.7 per cent lower at 7,162 by 10:15am AEDT, while the broader All Ordinaries index was off the same percentage to 7,354.
Tyro rejects takeovers, Westpac rejects Tyro
By Michael Janda
Point of sale payments company Tyro has rebuffed potential takeover approaches from Westpac and investment firm Potentia Capital Management.
Potentia's latest offer valued Tyro at $1.60 a share or an enterprise value of $875 million in total.
But Tyro said, after extensive discussions with the potential bidders and its external advisers, "those discussions have not resulted in a proposal that the board believes fairly values Tyro."
"Tyro remains open to engaging with any credible change of control proposal it receives that represents compelling value for Tyro shareholders."
Potentia has a deal with major Tyro shareholder Grok — billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes's investment vehicle — which would see it cast its 12.5 per cent stake of votes in favour of a takeover pitched above $1.27 a share, subject to some other conditions, Tyro said.
The deal between Grok and Potentia also means that Mr Cannon-Brookes can't accept a third party takeover offer below $1.85 a share, until the arrangement expires on March 7, 2023, with the possibility of an extension to June 7, 2023.
For its part, Westpac said, after looking at Tyro's books, it decided a deal was not in the best interests of its shareholders at this time.
Tyro shares were down 17 per cent to $1.24 shortly after 11:00am AEDT.
Has the bank regulator set up a housing crash?
By Michael Janda
A 2019 decision by the banking regulator APRA to remove a 7 per cent floor on the interest rate used for mortgage serviceability tests dramatically increased the amount people could borrow.
On recent history, a mortgage serviceability rate floor of 7 per cent already seems dangerously low — there was roughly a one-in-five chance of exceeding it in any given month, worse odds than Russian roulette.
However, removing the floor made the risks much worse.
I explain why in this analysis of the move and how it has resulted in tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of mortgage borrowers who may be unable to service their loans as interest rates keep rising.
Big week for interest rates
By Michael Janda
This week is a massive one for the world's most important central banks, with the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all meeting.
All three are widely expected to raise rates in lock-step, by half a percentage point.
The Fed is the first out of the blocks, with its two-day meeting concluding on Wednesday, which is early Thursday morning in Australia.
Markets are putting a 93 per cent probability on a half a percentage point increase, with an outside chance of a bigger rate rise.
That will take the target range for the US Fed funds rate to 4.25-4.5 per cent (the Fed targets a range, rather than a single point like the RBA).
NAB's head of market economics Tapas Strickland said a slightly hotter than expected 0.4 per cent rise in core producer prices for the previous month has traders on edge that the Fed might go harder for longer on rate rises.
All eyes will now be on this week's US Consumer Price Index number.
"The print will also validate chair Powell's recent speech that while the October inflation numbers were encouraging, it will take substantially more progress to bring inflation down.
"The PPI isn't usually a market mover, but markets are jittery ahead of key risk events this week.
"With PPI printing a little hotter, attention now turns to the CPI data on Tuesday, ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday."
The ECB and BoE both follow on Thursday, with their decisions coming out in the night time after markets have closed in Australia.
According to Reuters data, markets are pricing in a 73 per cent chance of a 0.5 percentage point ECB rate rise, with a 27 per cent chance it goes harder with a 0.75 percentage point rise.
The BoE is rated at 87 per cent for a 0.5 percentage point increase, again with the other possibility seen as a 0.75 percentage point rise.
Market snapshot at 8:40am AEDT
By Michael Janda
ASX SPI 200 futures: Down 0.4 per cent to 7,183
Aussie dollar: 67.85 US cents
On Wall Street (Friday): Dow down 0.9 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.7 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.7 per cent.
In Europe: Stoxx 600 up 0.8 per cent, FTSE up 0.1 per cent, DAX up 0.7 per cent
Spot gold: Flat at $US1,797 an ounce
Brent crude: $US76.10 a barrel
Iron ore: Up 1.5 per cent to $US112.40 a tonne.
Bitcoin: Down 0.1 per cent to $US17,130
ASX poised to fall
By Michael Janda
Good morning, I'll be taking you through all the live markets action from ASX open to close, along with a bit of economics and company news along the way.
The local market looks set for a bit of a fall after Wall Street declined on Friday.
The ASX SPI 200 futures are down around half a per cent, following a 0.7 per cent slide in the main Wall Street index, the S&P 500.
Renewed concerns about stubbornly high inflation in the US and three key central bank meetings later this week — the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank — have investors worried that rates might still get higher than many hoped.
We'll have a preview of those central bank meetings in a post soon.
