Brazil's presidential election is headed for a run-off vote, electoral authorities said on Sunday, after President Jair Bolsonaro's surprising strength in a first-round vote spoiled rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's hopes of winning outright. Read FRANCE 24’s liveblog to see how the election unfolded. All times are Paris time (GMT+2).
This liveblog is no longer being updated. For more coverage of events in Brazil, click here.
7:10am: 'Wishful thinking' led analysts to overestimate Lula's performance
"When some people say that they thought Lula could win in the first round, it was a bit of science and a bit of wishful thinking as well; it would never be easy for him to win in the first round," said Marcelo Lins, executive editor of GloboNews, reporting from Rio de Janeiro. "This is very rare to happen in Brazilian elections. It only happened twice since democracy came back to the country in 1989. [...] But with Lula it was more wishful thinking than the reality. I think that in the end he got around 48 percent, it was the average that polls were suggesting.
"What I think happened, on the other hand, is that some analysts, the press [...] didn't expect Bolsonaro to get out of this election so strong as he did. And not only by himself, because it's quite normal that an incumbent president reaches the second round; if not that he's re-elected in the first round. [...] He managed to elect some very important governors in the country; he managed to elect some very important volumes of deputies for the federal chamber and also in the Senate," Lins continued.
If Lula manages to win the second round on October 30, he will have a "very tough time, facing a much more conservative Congress, and this is a problem for the people behind the [strategy] of Lula and it's also a problem for the whole world -- meaning that everybody in Europe, in the United States, in other parts of the world, will have to pay attention [to] what Brazil will be becoming in the international arena."
7:07am: Bolsonaro's party to be 'biggest' in parliament
The first round of Brazil's presidential elections on Sunday was "much closer than anybody expected", noted Brazil correspondent Jan Onosko, reporting from Rio de Janeiro. "There may have been 11 candidates in this election, but in fact more than 90 percent of the vote went to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Lula. In fact, Lula was less than 2 percent from securing what would have been a remarkable outright victory. Remarkable because just four years ago – in 2018 – he was barred from taking part in that election because he was in prison [on corruption charges]. But his conviction was overturned in 2019; he was judged to have been unfairly tried, and that led the way to this political return."
"As for Bolsonaro, he was the surprise of the night; he scored much higher than anyone expected -- more than 43 percent. And his [...] party also fared very well in the elections for the Senate and the Congress. They're going to be biggest party in both of those houses, and that means that even if Lula does win in the second round, he's going to find it much more difficult to push through his agenda."
6:38am: 'We defeated the opinion polls' lie,' Bolsonaro claims as runoff confirmed
Brazil's far-right President Jair Bolsonaro claimed victory over the "lie" of opinion polls that had placed him a distant second in elections Sunday in which he did much better than predicted, forcing a runoff.
"We beat the lie today," said Bolsonaro of the Datafolha polling institute, which ahead of the vote gave him 36 percent of valid votes to 50 percent for leftist front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Lula ended up on 48.4 percent and Bolsonaro 43.3 percent with 99.8 percent of polling station results in.
6:04am: 'We won't give up.. We are the best solution for the lives of Brazilians,' says Lula
05:36am: Bolsonaro says far-right better for Brazil
Bolsonaro spoke to reporters in Brasilia late Sunday night and said he would to devote more time to convincing the poorest sectors of society they would be better off with a far-right government than a left wing one.
“I understand there were a lot of votes (cast) because of the condition of the Brazilian people, who feel price increases, especially on basic products. I understand that a lot of people desire change but some changes can be for the worst... We tried to show this other side in the campaign but it seems like it didn’t register with the most important layers of society. We are now going to show the Brazilian people, especially those most affected, that it was a consequence of the policy of ‘stay at home, we’ll worry about the economy later,’ of a foreign war, and an ideological crisis as well.”
5:05am: France 24's Andrew Hilliar describes Brazil's 'polarised electorate'
"It's been quite a happy night for Lula's supporters but there'll be disappointment that they couldn't quite clinch the more than 50% of votes they needed to avoid a runoff." Andrew Hilliar reported from Rio de Janeiro. He explained why the electorate in Brazil is more polarised than ever before.
4:30am: US Secretary of State commends Brazil
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has congratulated Brazil on a “successful first round election”, and said that the US is confident that the next round will go as smoothly.
4:13am: Mexico's president congratulates Lula
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador congratulated Brazilian leftist presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after he came first in an initial round of voting on Sunday but failed to secure enough support to win outright.
"Congratulations, brother and companion Lula. The people of Brazil demonstrated once again their democratic vocation and, in particular, their inclination for equality and justice," Lopez Obrador, a fellow leftist, said on Twitter.
3:40am: Lula tells his supporters 'divine justice' will help him win
Presidential candidate, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addressed followers after the results of the day's election came through.
“It’s like destiny likes me having to work a bit more,” he told them.
“We are going to win these elections! I am absolutely certain that divine justice will allow us to win these elections to recover the dignity of the Brazilian people.”
3:06am: Bolsonaro beats the polls
Several opinion surveys had shown Lula leading Bolsonaro by 10-15 percentage points ahead of Sunday's vote. The much tighter result dashed expectations of a quick resolution to a deeply polarized election in the world's fourth-largest democracy.
Bolsonaro had questioned polls that showed him losing to Lula in the first round, saying they did not capture enthusiasm he saw on the campaign trail. He has also attacked the integrity of Brazil's electronic voting system without evidence, and suggested he might not concede if he lost.
Political observers had said a wide margin of victory for Lula could sap Bolsonaro of support to challenge the electoral results. But Sunday's vote, extending a tense and violent election by another four weeks, revitalised his campaign.
"The extreme right is very strong across Brazil," said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at the Insper business school. "Lula's second-round victory is now less likely. Bolsonaro will arrive with a lot of strength for re-election."
Some polls had suggested Lula could win over 50% of valid votes, allowing him to avoid the run-off against his fierce rival. But as results trickled in, that looked unlikely.
Outside Bolsonaro's family home in Rio de Janeiro's Barra da Tijuca neighborhood, the scene of jubilant celebrations when Bolsonaro was elected in 2018, the mood was increasingly upbeat.
Maria Lourdes de Noronha, 63, said only fraud could prevent a Bolsonaro victory, adding that "we will not accept it" if he loses. "The polls in our country, the media, and journalists, are liars, rascals, shameless," she said.
2:50am: Concerns over potential unrest in leadup to second round
A second-round vote could add to fierce polarisation and simmering political violence in Latin America's biggest country. A narrow first-round vote would also deliver a major boost to Bolsonaro, who was seen trailing Lula by 10-15 percentage points in most polls ahead of Sunday's vote.
Bolsonaro has questioned polls that showed him losing to Lula in the first round, saying they did not capture support he saw on the campaign trail. He has also repeatedly cast unfounded doubts on the country's electronic voting system, prompting fears he may refuse to accept defeat and spark an institutional crisis.
Initial results do not always capture the full picture in Brazil's sprawling national elections. In 2014, when the Lula's Workers Party (PT) last won a presidential election, its advantage only appeared after two hours of vote counting. Results from Brazil's poorer northeast, a traditional PT stronghold, often take longer to reach the TSE.
2:29am: Electoral authority announces runoff
Brazil's electoral authority announced that the presidential election will go to a second round runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro.
With 97.3% of voting machines counted, Lula had 47.9% of valid votes, compared to 43.7% for Bolsonaro, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported on its website, putting a first-round victory out of reach.
1:42am: Lula holds slight lead with 91.6% of votes counted
With 91.6% of the votes counted, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the leftist Workers’ Party has a slight lead in the nation’s presidential election, with 47.3% support.
Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is in second, with 44.2% support.
It appears increasingly likely neither of the top two candidates will receive more than 50% of the valid votes, which exclude spoiled and blank ballots, meaning a second round vote will be scheduled for Oct. 30.
1:14am: Lula has slight lead over Bolsonaro with 70% of votes counted
With 70% of voting machines counted, Lula had 45.7% of valid votes, compared to 45.5% for Bolsonaro, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported on its website. If no candidate wins over half the votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, the top two will face off in a second-round vote in four weeks.
(France 24 with AFP, AP and Reuters)
