Right now, a rare political event is happening in China, but the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress isn't just about re-electing President Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as the party's powerful general secretary.
As an extraordinary protest happened in the capital, ahead of some major announcements this weekend, our experts unpacked what it all means.
Catch up here.
Key events
- Question: What does this all mean for China's military strategy?
- 'More symbolic than substantive': How everyday Chinese people feel about it
- Question: What does Xi's third term mean for our region?
- Protest in Beijing and UK: How has the congress been received?
- Have questions? These are our experts to answer them
- What is the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress?
Live updates
By Peta Fuller
Thanks for joining us for this Q&A
If you're catching up now, here are a few of the questions we've covered today:
And we'll have more updates over the weekend as the results are announced.
By Peta Fuller
Question: How do Chinese factions compare to Western democracies?
You mentioned factions within the CCP earlier, can you give us a rundown of these factions? Is this similar to "the moderates" being a faction within in the LNP?
- Tony
Interesting one, thanks Tony. Bang Xiao has this answer for you:
"Chinese people refer to Xi's faction as "the princelings". This is because many of them are the children of senior officials from the Mao era.
They are believed to be the conservative wing.
In opposition to this is the reformist faction within the CCP.
One of the most well-known reformers was Deng Xiaoping, who designated economic reform and opened China up to the rest of the world in the 1980s.
However, the reformists are not pro-democracy. Deng hoped to boost China's economy and raise living standards, but he was also responsible for the military crackdown on Tiananmen protesters in 1989.
Today's CCP operates more opaquely under Xi's leadership.
Xi amended China's constitution by removing term limits on the presidency in 2018.
This essentially overturned the checks and balances that Deng left in the party."
By Peta Fuller
Question: What happened in the Manchester protest this week?
Is there a reason that those consular officials dragged the protestor into the grounds of the consulate? Is there some sort of legal immunity provided to them there where they can't be held accountable for it?
- Leon
If you missed it, a protester appeared to have been pulled into the grounds of the Chinese consulate in Manchester and beaten — all on the first day of this congress.
We've had Jiang Yun take a look at this for you Leon (and thanks for the question):
"Embassy and consular grounds are still subject to the law where they are hosted. This means ambassadors and consular staff in the UK must still obey the UK law.
However, under some circumstances, they are immune from prosecution and punishment for breaking the law.
Depending on the severity of their offences, the government may choose to take some actions.
For example, the government can choose to expel the offending diplomats. This can sometimes result in tit-for-tat from the other country.
The government could also choose not to take any actions, as Australia does with unpaid speeding fines by diplomats in Canberra."
By Peta Fuller
Question: What does this all mean for China's military strategy?
China claims it's massive military build-up is for defense .... Just exactly who does it think is going to be an aggressive invader, like Russia has invaded Ukraine? The label "for defense" is just a cynical and blatantly transparent excuse for needing a massive military for when it invades and usurps Taiwan.
- john
Thanks for this one John, Stephen Dziedzic has this for you:
"I’ll paraphrase Tony Jones here – “I’ll take that as a comment!” It’s certainly hard to imagine any country on the planet launching a full-scale invasion of China, although it’s worth noting that in recent years there have been several violent flare-ups between India and China along their Himalayan border.
Beijing likes to point out that the United States maintains a vast network of overseas military bases, including in several countries near China (including in South Korea and Japan) and in the US island territory of Guam.
China argues that the US is trying to encircle or “hem in” China with these bases. And of course Beijing has engaged in a massive military build up not just because it wants to equip itself with the forces it would need to seize Taiwan, but also to give itself the capacity to defeat US forces in the region in the event they come to Taiwan’s aid.
More broadly, China has also made it clear it does not want the US to maintain a military presence in Asia – as Xi Jinping once said, “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia, solve the problems of Asia and uphold the security of Asia.”
But several other Asian nations are uneasy about the prospect of Chinese military hegemony in the region and would like the US to stay in the region in order to maintain a strategic balance, however uneasy.
How will all this play out? You’d be brave to make any confident predictions. But expect China to press ahead full speed with military modernisation and expansion under Xi Jinping."
By Peta Fuller
'More symbolic than substantive': How everyday Chinese people feel about it
Let's talk a bit more about what it's like for ordinary people, Bang Xiao has more:
"In China, the Party Congress does not attract much attention from ordinary people, despite the overwhelming propaganda across Chinese media.
Most party discussions happen behind closed doors and many items on the congress' to-do list are already pre-determined by the top leaders.
Meetings are more symbolic than substantive.
The general public knows there's not much that can be done and tend to disengage.
Those most concerned are the grassroots party members, government representatives and businesspeople who may have close ties with the party.
As for Taiwanese, Hongkonger, and Uyghur groups, most of them don't have a clue about how the party works."
By Peta Fuller
Question: Can Xi Jingping be kicked out of his job?
Hi, Can Xi Jinping be ousted or removed should there be an outpouring of public dissatisfaction?
- Tammy Warne
Good question, a few people have asked this one. Bang Xiao has the answer:
"Hi Tammy, the short answer is no.
In the history of modern China, we have yet to see a Chinese leader step down because of public discontent.
Previously, we have seen some Chinese leaders step down because of inner-party rivalry.
But this is extremely rare and hasn't been seen in the last 73 years.
Chinese people cannot vote for their national leaders, nor can they have a say in the removal of the CCP's general secretary."
By Peta Fuller
'His political career will be over': What happens if Xi *isn't* elected?
Deng Yuwen, former editor of China's People's Daily, told the ABC this is an important moment for Xi:
"It will be revealed soon whether Xi will be re-elected to the 20th National Congress, and if Xi is not re-elected, his political career will be over," Mr Deng said.
Mr Deng says that because Xi has so much personal power, his views, policies and course of governance will be critical to China and the world’s future.
You can read a bit more on what he said (and why this year's meeting is so important) here:
By Peta Fuller
Question: Will Xi Jinping ever retire?
We'll ask Bang Xiao to answer this:
"The retirement age for CCP’s top leaders is usually 68.
So in theory this year *should* have been Chinese president Xi Jinping's moment to step back (he's 69 now).
But he has signalled his plan to remain in power for quite some time yet — and the world is expecting him to make it clear he’ll continue in the president role at a different meeting — China's National People's Congress — in March 2023. "
And although they sound similar, that congress is *not* the same as the one we're talking about now.
The National People's Congress meets annually and is the highest organ of state power — where the CCP holds two-thirds of the seats, so who runs the CCP ultimately sets the direction for the entire country.
By Peta Fuller
Question: What does Xi's third term mean for our region?
This is one for the ABC's Asia Pacific reporter Stephen Dziedzic:
"It's difficult to predict exactly what a third Xi term means for our region. But the broad consensus among most China watchers is that Beijing is likely to pursue an increasingly confrontational foreign policy.
For example, Xi Jinping has made it clear that what he calls the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" cannot be considered complete until China achieves "full reunification" — which means seizing control of Taiwan.
Some senior figures in the Biden administration have warned that China may move to invade Taiwan before the decade is out.
Just this week the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Beijing was pursuing its plan to annex Taiwan on a "much faster timeline" although he didn't nominate any specific dates.
It's worth noting that there is no consensus on this point: some experts and analysts remain deeply sceptical that Beijing will be willing to roll the dice and attempt a full-scale military invasion in coming years. The risks remain vast.
But Xi does seem to see himself – or at least present himself — as a man entrusted with a historical mission. That might well make conflict more likely, rather than less."
By Peta Fuller
Question: How will everyday people react to Xi's succession?
The ABC's East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles has taken this one for us:
"I tend to believe Xi enjoys majority approval and support in China, but the last 12 months in particular the gloss has really come off his leadership due to the COVID Zero policy and a faltering economy.
He’d be copping it left, right and centre for these problems if he was leading an open democracy.
But instead, his army of censors and security police are censoring and suppressing critical voices, so we don’t really know how genuinely popular he currently is."
By Peta Fuller
Question: Will China's tough COVID-zero policy be relaxed any time soon?
Is there any likelihood of China’s COVID control measures relaxing after the CCPC meeting? Is a way out of lockdowns on the agenda?
- Nick
Thanks for this one Nick — Jiang Yun has an answer for you:
"The report to the party congress has generally been light on government policy. The congress is about the work of the party rather than work of the government, so detailed policy responses to contemporary challenges are usually not the focus.
But response to COVID-19 and the dynamic COVID-zero policy did receive a mention. Xi underscored that the party had "put the people and their lives above all else" and "tenaciously pursued a dynamic COVID-zero policy". Thus, the party justifies its pandemic policy as putting lives first (as opposed to for example the economy first).
There are no indications in the report that this overall approach will change. So it looks likely that China will continue with the dynamic COVID-zero policy in general, but we may see some tinkering around the edges."
By Peta Fuller
Question: Has there been much said about Taiwan or Hong Kong so far? And should we expect more?
We'll ask the ANU's Jiang Yun to take this one:
"Xi’s report to the party congress mentioned both Taiwan and Hong Kong.
On Taiwan, the commitment from Xi has remained the same as previous party leaders: “realising China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment”.
Xi said that the party will “continue to strive for peaceful reunification” but “never promise to renounce the use of force”. This is consistent with the party’s previous statements.
Notably, there is no sense of timeline or urgency around this in the report.
On Hong Kong and Macao, the report is a triumphalist pat on the back for the party. It emphasised that “order has been restored in Hong Kong”. According to the report, the party’s approach to Hong Kong has been correct and that Hong Kong is now “administered by patriots” is a positive outcome for the party.
By Peta Fuller
Question: Is it just Xi in the running for the top job?
Are there any other contenders for the presidency, or is it a vote for Xi only?
- IAN
Thanks Ian, Bang Xiao will break this down for us:
Traditionally, the general secretary is the *only* candidate for the presidency.
If Xi gets a third term as the CCP's top leader (aka general secretary), then he'll be very likely the only person who can be the nation's president.
But will he definitely get that third term?
The short answer is that we're not sure – the result won't be revealed until Sunday afternoon.
However, the overwhelming consensus among China watchers is that Xi is highly likely to get a third term as the CCP's general secretary, and that comes down to two major factors.
One is that the CCP shows no signs of promoting anyone new, meaning that Xi has not selected his own successor in the current leadership structure.
In addition, China's state-owned media – especially the Communist Party's mouthpiece outlet – is completely saturated with all things Xi Jinping.
Xi's personality cult propaganda is in full force.
This is considered to be an indication that Xi is confident he'll be gripping onto power for another term.
But, it doesn't mean that Xi isn't facing any challenges within the party.
Despite the opaque nature of the CCP's operations, there is a long-standing struggle between factions within the party.
The answer will be revealed in 72 hours.
By Peta Fuller
Question: What were the notable moments in Xi's opening speech?
Let's get into a few questions now — we'll throw this one to Bang Xiao:
Xi's two-hour-long speech on Sunday included several key points that caught international attention.
He addressed directives on Taiwan, Hong Kong, China's economy, and the current strict COVID-zero policy.
Xi said Beijing will encourage economic cooperation with Taiwan and will sincerely strive for peaceful reunification, but the CCP "will never commit to giving up the option of using force".
He also defended the sweeping National Security Law for Hong Kong, claiming it has restored order and prosperity in the city.
He mentioned his policy targeting religious minorities in China's western region Xinjiang, saying religious groups must adhere to a "Chinese orientation".
Xi also made a pledge to vigorously invest into low-emission technology and promote low-emission lifestyles, saying: "We will strengthen pollution control and fully eliminate serious pollution."
If you don't know what's really going on in China right now, you might believe these statements from Xi.
By Peta Fuller
Let's look at how things work in Chinese politics
So right now, Xi Jinping is standing for his third term as general secretary of China's Communist Party — and he'll likely be elected to that role on Sunday.
In Australia, electing the boss of a political party isn't generally a big deal for most of us but it's *very* important in China.
Why? Aside from the role's power over the party (you can see how that all works below), the general secretary also serves as the president of China.
But who gets to be China's president is formally decided in March next year at a different meeting — and if Xi Jinping is still general secretary then, he'll likely get to remain as president.
And that's a big deal — a third term would make him the longest-serving leader in the country's modern history since Chairman Mao Zedong, the founding supreme leader of the People's Republic.
By Peta Fuller
Protest in Beijing and UK: How has the congress been received?
Ahead of the congress, something unusual happened — a protester unfurled a banner on busy Beijing overpass criticising Xi Jinping and his key policies.
The protester was taken away by the Chinese police and hasn't been heard from since, with no other reports of protests in China this week.
But what does this tell us?
ABC reporter Bang Xiao took a look into what people in China are feeling now:
"For the next five years, a real challenge for Xi is trust, and it cuts both ways; his regime doesn't trust the people, and the people are losing their trust in him,” he writes.
And there's a police investigation happening in the UK, after a protester appeared to have been pulled into the grounds of the Chinese consulate in Manchester and beaten.
It happened on the first day of the CCP's congress — with earlier banners reading, "Heaven will destroy the Chinese Communist Party", and a caricature of Mr Xi wearing a crown (according to pictures provided to Reuters by a journalist at the scene).
By Peta Fuller
Have questions? These are our experts to answer them
The next few days could bring some changes to China's political landscape — so if you've got questions, these experts have answers:
- Bang Xiao: He's the ABC's Chinese supervising producer and a bilingual journalist
- Stephen Dziedzic: He's the ABC's foreign affairs reporter for the Asia Pacific region
- Jiang Yun: From the ANU, Ms Jiang is a China expert and AIIA China Matters Fellow
We'll hear from them in a little under 15 minutes, so hit the blue comment button if you've got something you'd like answered.
By Peta Fuller
What is the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress?
If you're totally new to this, let's break down the basics for you:
- They're rare — they only happen twice a decade
- They make some big decisions here — including who gets to be the party's General Secretary for the next five years (likely to remain as Xi Jinping, with no obvious competitors to his rule)
- If Mr Xi retains his position it'll be an unprecedented third term
- And if he's successful in his bid for General Secretary, he'll be practically guaranteed a third term as China's president at next year's National People's Congress (similar name, different meeting) — making him the longest-serving leader in modern history
- But this re-election isn't the only show in town — who gets to be part of a "super-elite cabinet" or the standing committee of the politburo will be another crucial decision
And this video from ABC reporter Kai Feng steps you through it:
By Peta Fuller
Welcome to our Q&A on China's Communist Party Congress
This is one of the most important political meetings in China's history.
And the rare, week-long gathering is a chance to take a closer peek at the nation's one-party system.
Let's get into our Q&A on this — I'm Peta Fuller and I'll be joined by three experts this morning to take your questions on what's happening in China, what it means for the region, and (crucially) what it means for the man at the centre of it all, Xi Jinping.
