It’s been a long time since the morning coffee went down on a day with a Detroit Lions playoff game. Too long.
The question for this snowy Sunday is, will there be another Lions playoff game next weekend?
It’s not going to be easy, but these Lions have a strong chance to keep the postseason run rolling.
Why I think the Lions will win
- The Jared Goff revenge factor is real. His divorce from Rams coach Sean McVay and Los Angeles is well-documented, but one facet that doesn’t get enough oxygen: how badly Goff’s teammates want to help the Lions QB prove himself and get his vengeance. Think “Jim Schwartz being carried off in victory in his first trip back to Ford Field” type of desire by the Lions to deliver their leader some validation.
- The Rams don’t defend the middle of the field in the passing game all that well. Guess where the Lions passing game thrives. With top Rams safety Jordan Fuller banged up and questionable, it creates an even bigger advantage for All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, who I do think plays in this one.
- Special teams are a massive advantage for Detroit, including kicker Michael Badgley. Yes, folks, the Rams special teams are indeed that kind of bad. I even pegged the Lions defense and special teams to get the first score of the game as this week’s best bet. Dave Fipp’s creativity with fakes factors in here, too.
- The Lions run defense against opposing RBs is fantastic. Even in Week 18, where the Detroit defense’s tackling was awful, they still did a decent job in limiting the ground game. Rams RB Kyren Williams is a good one, a worthy Pro Bowler. The Lions LBs and safeties have been very good all season in run defense, too. This is one area where the Lions’ EDGEs have a nice advantage against the Rams’ OTs and TEs, where only RT Rob Havenstein is even league-average at run blocking. Hutchinson has a big advantage in the pass rush against Havenstein, who doesn’t move well laterally, too.
- For all the hullabaloo about Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit for a playoff game, Stafford’s own history in playoff games is a mixed bag. His career INT rate and sack rate are higher in the playoffs than the regular season. That’s true for most QBs; playoff games mean facing better opponents. But we’ve all seen Stafford have some bonehead plays and inexplicable misses in big games. There’s more than a little pressure on him to perform big in his return to Detroit, too.
- The Rams won just one game against another team in the playoffs until last week, when they beat a 49ers team resting key offensive players. The first win over a playoff team came in Week 13 against a Cleveland Browns team starting its 4th-string QB, their No. 4 and No. 5 OTs, and no Myles Garrett. The Rams are good, but they’re far from battle-tested in 2023.
What worries me about the Rams
- The DT duo of Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner is the best in the league in 2023. Donald didn’t have his best year but is still the preeminent interior pass rusher in the NFL. Turner quietly but emphatically outplayed the more celebrated Jalen Carter amongst rookie DTs, especially after the first month of the season. Even with the Lions strong OL, they’re a problem.
- The Rams have a dangerous duo at WR in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Lions would struggle to cover either one of those on their own, but together they create a huge advantage for the Rams offense. If the Lions safeties aren’t sharp in coverage rotations and assignments, it’s not going to be pretty. The Detroit outside CBs simply cannot handle the combination on their own, and the Rams do a good job with formations and motion to set up favorable matchups, too.
- This is more about the Lions, but I have some concern that OC Ben Johnson will do what he did in Dallas — trying to show how smart and creative he is instead of actually attacking the defense. Like Dallas, the Rams defense is predicated on speed, penetration and flow. They’re vulnerable to offenses that can punch them in the mouth. Johnson only threw a few jabs in Dallas and it wasn’t nearly enough. Has he learned his lesson?
Final score prediction
The Lions have more paths to victory than the visiting Rams, and I think they find just enough trails to win. Lions 30, Rams 27.
