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Rich Asplund

Lingering Supply Concerns Push Arabica Coffee to All-Time High

Ice Brazil Conab USDA Vietnam Volcafe

March arabica coffee (KCH25) today is up +13.30 (+3.47%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) is up +99 (+1.78%).

Coffee prices today extended this year's parabolic rally, with arabica coffee climbing to a new all-time nearest-futures high.  Lingering global coffee supply fears are underpinning prices.  Last Tuesday, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags.  Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.

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