Early evening summary
The Sentencing Council has suggested that Shabana Mahmood’s threat to curb its powers could undermine the independence of the judiciary. (See 5.32pm.)
Keir Starmer has told Donald Trump he wants US-Ukraine talks to have a “positive outcome” that will result in the resumption of military aid and intelligence-sharing.
Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has told MPs that potentially “thousands” of neighbourhood policing officers and police community support officers (PCSOs) were miscounted by the last government, meaning cuts to officer numbers were “even worse” than anticipated. Opening the second reading debate on the crime and policing bill, she said:
I have to tell the house that the cuts to neighbourhood policing over the last decade were even worse than we had thought.
The previous Conservative government was so indifferent to neighbourhood policing that they did not even keep a proper count of who was doing that work. They treated, too often, the neighbourhood police officers just the same as 999 response officers or local detective teams, and the Home Office guidance actually allowed forces to report some of their response officers as neighbourhood police instead, and they didn’t have proper checks in place.
As a result, I can tell the house that hundreds and even thousands of officers and PCSOs were miscounted under the last government and the Home Office and National Police Chiefs’ Council will, later this month, have to publish revised force-by-force figures so that communities properly can see what is happening in their area.
Rob Ford, a politics professor, has posted some thoughts on the Runcorn and Helsby byelection on Bluesky.
By-election time! First of the new Parliament, and an interesting one too...Labour have a 35 point majority in Amesbury’s seat of Runcorn & Helsby (formerly Weaver Vale), which looks big, but these are volatile times, and ReformUK are in 2nd place
So, first of all, could Lab lose? The seat would fall on a 17.5 point swing away from the government...sounds a lot, but Starmer achieved 6 swings of 20 points plus in the previous Parliament (5 from Con, 1 from SNP), Starmer & Lab are now about as unpopular as their Tory predecessors were then...
Second, could Reform win? They finished only 2 points ahead of Conservatives last July, and the predecessor seat of Weaver Vale returned Tory MPs in 2010 and 2015. Reform will need to squeeze the Con vote as well as win over Labour voters - may not be easy & they have their own internal troubles
Third, what would the result mean? In one sense, not much. By-elections are often outliers. But perceptions are everything...The current Starmer team spent years obsessing over by-election campaigns & the rise of Reform is the big story right now.
A Lab defeat to Reform will be a big blow to morale and will definitely intensify internal arguments over how to respond to Farage, particularly as it will come either soon before or soon after local and Mayoral contests which will also feature Reform heavily.
A Reform by-election win on such a big swing would be a huge deal for Farage, demonstrating his claim to be “coming for Labour” is credible, and likely also showing that Reform can squeeze third placed Con voters where they are the best placed local opponent to Lab...
...and partly for that reason a Reform win would be an even bigger nightmare for Badenoch and Cons that Starmer & Lab. Not only would it underline Badenoch’s failure to rebuilt support or see off Farage, it would make the possibility of Reform displacing Cons as main party of the right more credible
Every by-election provides a big moment of electoral drama and a key test for the parties. This one will perhaps be a bigger moment than most, shaping perceptions of three different parties’ prospects - offering relief or anxiety for each going into the summer & the autumn conference season beyond.
