When is the election most likely to be?
November 14 or 21. I’ve always thought the chances of a spring election were being massively overplayed. The fundamentals haven’t changed. The Conservatives remain around 20 points behind in the polls and that hasn’t changed in a long time. If Sunak wanted a spring election he’d have to dissolve Parliament by mid-March. No prime minister would go to the country when they’re so far behind. They always hang on and hope for the best, and opt for almost certain defeat later rather than certain defeat now. So I think the latest possible date that isn’t too close to Christmas is most likely — which leads us to mid-November. That’ll mean we have the closest UK and US election since 1964.
