Legalise Cannabis has leapfrogged the Shooters Fishers Farmers and Animal Justice parties to give it its strongest chance yet at entering the New South Wales parliament, despite predictions of minor parties playing kingmaker roles failing to materialise.
The so-called teal wave that saw environment- and integrity-focused independent candidates elected at last year’s federal election failed to be replicated in NSW, with only one Climate 200-endorsed candidate predicted to win a seat.
But minor parties are projected to increase their share of the votes in the upper house and Legalise Cannabis and the Liberal Democrats could pick up their first seats, with votes still being counted.
Legalise Cannabis is on track to have 4.2% of the upper house vote. While the party may fall short of securing a seat, a candidate, Jeremy Buckingham, described the count being at the “upper end” of his expectations.
Climate 200’s chief executive, Byron Fay, said despite the results for candidates it backed in Wollondilly and Pittwater being too close to call, the poll was a boon for the independent movement.
He pointed to the independent Michael Regan – a local mayor who won the seat of Wakehurst – and the tight contest in Willoughby as positive steps for those communities.
“These seats have been safe forever – until now. As a result, voters were taken for granted, their voices weren’t being heard,” he said.
“Now they’re marginal, these seats present genuine contests and voters there can’t be ignored, and with thousands of locals deeply engaging with democracy for the first time, this is a very healthy development for society.”
On Sunday the Pittwater independent Jacqui Scruby remained hopeful that she could win, despite analysts predicting Rob Stokes’s replacement, Rory Amon, would retain the seat for the Liberals on a slim margin.
She said she felt like the independent movement in the northern Sydney seat had “already won”, even if the final result did not go her way.
“I feel incredibly happy that our community is falling into a pattern of close election contests between the Liberals and independents,” she said.
“That contest of ideas can only be a good thing. Pittwater will not be considered safe by the Liberal party for years to come.”
The independent Willoughby challenger Larissa Penn also remained optimistic about picking up the blue-ribbon seat from the Liberal Tim James, after coming close at the 2022 byelection that followed the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian.
When counting paused on Saturday night, James was predicted to hold the seat with a 0.7% margin.
“There are more votes to be counted and then postal votes to come in as well – if voters have filled in all the boxes and allocated their preferences, then we are in for another close result,” Penn said on Sunday.
She said the optional preferential voting system had caused confusion and angst on the booths, echoing calls from other independents for the system to be revised.
The Greens enjoyed a slight swing towards them overall but suffered in Balmain, after the resignation of the longtime member Jamie Parker.
The Greens candidate, Kobi Shetty, is expected to retain the seat for the Greens on a tight margin.
“The Balmain results are still too close to call at this stage so we are waiting until tomorrow for counting to restart,” Shetty told supporters on Sunday.
“I’ll be spending some time with my family and waiting to see the numbers roll in. Either way, I look forward to continuing to represent this amazing community for many years to come.”
The Greens look set to gain two seats in the upper house, with Cate Faerhmann returned alongside the incoming member Amanda Cohn.
The One Nation vote remained steady in the upper house, where it is on track to gain a seat.
