Playing poorly and picking up points
Let’s get the obvious business out of the way first. Leeds United are not playing particularly well and haven’t done so consistently at any point under Jesse Marsch.
Given phases of the loss at Leicester City were arguably the best football we have seen since Marsch took over, you cannot help but connect that to the man still living in Wetherby at the time. The American has a job on his hands sculpting his system from the crystallised shape Marcelo Bielsa left behind.
And yet, for any of the gripes with the entertainment or basic potency of what’s unfolding on the field, the league table is in a far better state than anyone could have hoped for. Eleven points from the last 15 available is a tremendous return when you consider the quality of football and the precarious state of the table right now.
READ MORE: Orta's Leeds United post-match message, Marsch and Klich's animated debate and moments missed
There were no excuses for failing to pick up six points from Norwich City and Watford, granted, but the fight shown at Molineux and then the dogged, if nervy, defensive displays against Southampton and Crystal Palace have kept Leeds’ fate in their own hands. Imagine the dire state of affairs heading into the next three games without that fight and those clean sheets.
There will be a time and place for debates around style and substance under Marsch, most likely in the autumn when next season starts to take shape, but points are all fans should be concerning themselves with currently. Marsch knows the team could have played better, but publicly he has to focus on the positives and keeping this team’s faith in the project.
If, after a summer of bespoke recruitment and pre-season training, the team continues to turn out performances like this into October then serious questions will rightly be asked of Marsch and the gameplan.
Midfield problems and Phillips’s return
One of the silver linings Marsch looked to after the match was Kalvin Phillips’s long-awaited return to the starting line-up and a critical 90 minutes in his legs. The England international only gets better from here and he’s about to get very busy in the next three matches.
Monday night was no cakewalk for Phillips. The Leeds midfield was so overrun and out of control Mateusz Klich was hooked at the break and a centre-back in there did not make it much better.
It’s easy to forget Phillips has had even less exposure to this system than his teammates and it will take time to bed in, despite all of the talk about England similarities. A passing success rate of 63 per cent said it all.
Only Robin Koch misplaced a higher percentage of his passes. It wasn’t like Phillips attempted vastly more than his teammates either. All four defenders attempted more. A key underlying number was Phillips’s long balls. Nine were attempted and only three were accurate.
The poor passing game across the whole team mirrored what we saw at Vicarage Road and as they look to establish Marsch’s gameplan, these rushed attempts to go vertical and deep with their service is not helping rhythm or control.
Shallow squad depth laid bare
Of course, this is not going to be an issue the club can rectify until the summer, but while Premier League status remains in balance, squad size has to be assessed as a reason for why Leeds are where they are. Adam Forshaw, Patrick Bamford and Tyler Roberts were the only senior absentees and yet the teamsheet looked like a cup game.
Palace had a nine-cap England goalkeeper, five seasoned Premier League pros, an £18.5m striker with 86 Scottish Premiership goals, a 45-cap Belgium striker once of Liverpool and one of the league’s next big things on their bench.
The Eagles have, of course, had nine consecutive top-flight campaigns to amass that roster and buying power, but the facts show what Leeds have been up against this season especially when they have, invariably, looked to change a match with something from the bench.
It’s a legacy of Bielsa’s tenure and we all know he had his reasons, but if Leeds do stave off the drop they need to not only move some players out, but bulk up that squad size significantly if they are to change their fortunes in 22/23.
Looking for favours
Very few spectators who have watched Leeds for long spells in recent matches will believe there are many, if any, points being added to that tally of 34 between now and May 15. Manchester City look relentless in their drive for the title, Arsenal have Champions League qualification within their grasp while Chelsea’s rotated line-up will include the likes of Romelu Lukaku.
Thomas Tuchel’s side are the one you could see a chink in the armour. The FA Cup final, their sole remaining motivation this season with the top three virtually sealed, is just three days after the long poke to West Yorkshire.
Distraction and rotation will play a factor, but it’s still a leap to feel Leeds have been playing well enough to beat a side riddled with international class. In short, we’re all looking at Everton and Burnley’s fixtures as much as United’s.
Between now and Brighton & Hove Albion’s trip to Elland Road on May 15, the Clarets face Watford away and Aston Villa at home. Everton face Chelsea at home before Leicester City and Watford away.
The recency bias of Burnley’s latest wins makes it easy to get carried away with their form, but it’s not hard to see them sitting above Leeds in the table by the time Graham Potter turns up in the middle of next month. The Toffees’ dismal away form, points deficit and very own Chelsea assignment should keep them behind Marsch’s side.
Either way, a shock or two in Leeds’ favour would just settle some nerves before those last two matches of the season.
