Tuesday night might see LeBron James make NBA history. If the future Hall of Famer scores 36 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he will officially surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record of 38,387 points. And if James doesn’t do it Tuesday, he will almost certainly take the record home against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday.
Knowing how James sometimes weirdly approaches situations, folks in the NBA world have started to speculate about the shot he’ll use to surpass Abdul-Jabbar. For a prolific scorer like him, any of the standard dunks, three-point attempts, free throws, or lay-ups will likely suffice.
But what if James wants to really commemorate capturing a basketball record that previously seemed insurmountable? What if, in a nod to Abdul-Jabbar, James uses his patented skyhook?
Friends, I’m here to tell you it’s likely… not going to happen!
For one, James only has two made hook shots all season. Take a slight step back to last year, and he made just two then, too! While I wouldn’t put it past James to try a skyhook once he only needs a couple of points, I will doubt that he actually makes the shot given his precedent.
For The Win’s Bryan Kalbrosky dug into the stats to find out which scoring method is most likely for James to break the record. The results are fascinating.
Here’s James’ complete catalog of shot attempts and shot makes in 2022-2023:
Two of four. Two of four!
The odds are also ever not in James’ favor to make a skyhook for a new record. According to FanDuel, as of Monday evening, oddsmakers expect him to surpass Abdul-Jabbar with a layup. A skyhook would safely be under the category of “other,” — which can, quite literally, encompass any other shot selection not listed:
Now, while the odds favor a layup for James to break the record, the bet that appears to have the best value is a much more anti-climatic free throw in the fourth quarter.
Here’s a look at his fourth-quarter scoring output, per Kalbrosky:
FanDuel is currently offering LeBron James to Score his 38,388th Regular Season Point in the 4th Quarter with a Free Throw (Any Game) +1900. It’s a wager worth monitoring.
Look, it would be absurdly cool if James could honor Abdul-Jabbar with the move that got him to the top of the NBA record books. I do not deny that. But, all things considered, James following through on such a plan is a different story. It’s the longest of long (hook) shots.
Save your money. Go with a layup or free throw, and when the moment comes — watch him celebrate.
NBA fans really want James to break the scoring record with a skyhook
Tonight Lebron need to be petty and wear the Kareem goggles and score the last point with a skyhook
— Tyskii (@tyskii555) February 7, 2023
Lebron gon break the record with a skyhook
— The Voice of Atlantis (@dontom45) February 7, 2023
I will bet anyone here $1000 that LeBron is breaking the scoring record with a skyhook
— Wemby Central (@WembyCentral) February 6, 2023
LeBron needa hit a skyhook to beat Kareem’s record in Milwaukee
— sai (@Mvsaiah) February 5, 2023
LeBron hits a game winner to break Kareem record while doing a skyhook would be so tuff
— skies (@ayeskies) February 5, 2023
I hope LeBron does a skyhook to pass Kareem. That would be so dope tbh.
— ジァメィン (@_Janame) February 5, 2023
LeBron will make a 2pt skyhook from the middle of the key to break the career pts record
— Alex (@alex_in_slc) February 5, 2023
Lebron breaks Kareem’s scoring record by hitting a game winner while doing a skyhook against the thunder on 2/7/23.
— Jonathan Becerra (@jonathan1_b) February 5, 2023
