In the wake of a drone strike in southern Beirut, tensions are running high and speculation regarding the potential response is rampant. Lebanese officials have issued strong statements, vowing that the attack will not go unanswered, with some even suggesting that they have their finger on the trigger. The situation has caught the attention of retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence, and now co-chair of the America First Policy Institute Center for American Security.
General Kellogg has warned Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, to exercise caution in his actions. Israel's Mossad and the CIA have made their intentions clear, promising to eradicate the Hamas leadership. David Barnea, the director of Mossad, likened the situation to the tragic 1972 Munich massacre of Israeli athletes and expressed resolve in pursuing those responsible. General Kellogg believes that Nasrallah should be mindful of his position, as he could find himself next on the hit list. However, whether Nasrallah will back down remains uncertain.
A significant concern in the region, as General Kellogg points out, is the absence of effective leadership to quell the escalating tensions. The entire area is currently embroiled in conflicts and lacks a coordinated effort to de-escalate the situation. Unfortunately, the retired Lieutenant General does not anticipate any improvement in the near future, suggesting that matters are likely to worsen.
One aspect that remains unclear is who exactly was responsible for the drone strike on the Qasem Soleimani memorial. The U.S. State Department has denied involvement by both Israel and Iran. This lack of immediate finger-pointing by Iran has prompted speculation that the attack may have originated internally. This suggests a potential power struggle within Iran itself. However, it is important to note that these are just conjectures at this point, with no concrete evidence to support any specific claim.
The intertwined nature of the region's conflicts is evident in the recent events. Hamas, a group that operates in the West Bank, had a leader present in Beirut, which is controlled by Hezbollah. This leader was a crucial link between Hamas and Iran. All these factions function as proxies for Iran. Until Iran and its proxies are deterred decisively, they are likely to continue pushing for their goals, leading to further conflicts and escalations.
The lack of effective international leadership in managing these crises is a cause for concern and has contributed to the current chaotic state of affairs. General Kellogg emphasizes the absence of a clear direction from the United States or any other external actors to navigate the complexities of the region.
With tensions rising, the potential consequences of the drone strike and the ensuing geopolitical dynamics remain uncertain. The international community watches cautiously as the situation continues to evolve, hopeful for a resolution that will restore stability and peace in the strife-torn region.
