The host countries of two of the United Nations’ flagship peacekeeping missions recently demanded their withdrawal. This development raises questions about whether such missions can still effectively prevent and manage conflicts. As part of a broader review, the UN is working to adapt its peacekeeping efforts to contemporary realities.
At the end of 2023, the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) concluded its withdrawal at the request of the Malian government. A similar withdrawal process was initiated, then paused, for the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO).
The future of several other missions, such as the special political mission in Iraq, is also at stake. These developments reflect broader challenges for UN peace missions, as geopolitical shifts prompt a reevaluation of its role in conflict zones. Indeed, the Pact for the Future agreed to by UN member states last September requests the UN to “adapt peace operations to better respond to existing challenges and new realities”.
What is the outlook of these missions, dozens of which are still ongoing around the world?
Withdrawals in Mali and in the DRC
In 2023, Mali’s government requested the withdrawal of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), a peacekeeping operation deployed in 2013 in the wake of insurgencies led by jihadist and separatist groups.
The mission’s initial mandate focused on stabilising the northern region and supporting the re-establishment of state authority throughout the country. It also included tasks to support transitory measures such as assisting in elections and fostering a national dialogue between Malian authorities and northern communities.
However, as Islamist insurgents began regaining territory, and following two coups in 2020 and 2021, MINUSMA struggled to provide effective security in the region. This led to growing frustrations among the population. A study showed that as of February 2023, 57% of the urban Malian population were dissatisfied with the work of the mission.
Similarly, in the DRC, the government of President Félix Tshisekedi called for the departure of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) by the end of 2024. However, this plan was suspended due to escalating tensions in the eastern part of the country. While MONUSCO completed the first phase of its withdrawal from South Kivu in June 2024, no timeline has been set for subsequent phases. MONUSCO succeeded an earlier mission in the DRC (MONUC) and was primarily tasked with providing civilian protection, stabilising the eastern part of the country, and supporting the peace consolidation process.
Despite numerous noteworthy accomplishments, MONUSCO has struggled to bring lasting stability in the eastern region, raising doubts and discontent among many Congolese. As Professor Kennedy Kihangi Bindu explained in a recent testimony, a survey on public opinion conducted by the Free University of the Great Lakes Countries in Goma showed that the population in North Kivu had mixed feelings. While they acknowledged strengths, such as successful military operations and support for electoral cycles, weaknesses included the multiplication of armed groups and the resurgence of military activities by certain movements.
A crisis of trust and legitimacy
The cases of MINUSMA and MONUSCO illustrate a growing “trust deficit” and reflect what has been described as a ‘crisis of legitimacy’ surrounding UN peace efforts. Host states and populations have expressed frustrations over the perceived inability of these missions to meet their objectives, particularly in stabilising conflict-affected regions, protecting civilians, and ensuring long-term peace.
Despite this opposition, research shows that UN peace missions’ track record is better than one might think. Quantitative studies demonstrate that peacekeeping operations are effective at lowering battle-related and civilian deaths. The presence of peacekeepers also favours the signing and implementation of peace agreements. Both impacts are reinforced when peacekeeping and political missions – special political missions or good offices engagements – operate jointly.
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Still, UN missions are operating in complex and dynamic security and geopolitical environments of regional and transnational dimensions that are deeply impacting how they are implemented and perceived.
The presence of numerous armed groups complicates their work, as does the involvement of external actors who come with their own geopolitical interests. In Mali and the DRC, UN missions have become arenas for superpower rivalries, with international actors using them to advance their own agendas. A striking example is Mali, where the government accused France of exerting disproportionate influence over MINUSMA’s mandate within the UN Security Council. This strained relationship coincided with Mali’s growing ties to Russia, exemplified by the controversial presence of the Wagner Group, a private military company. Such dynamics illustrate how global power rivalries can undermine peacekeeping mandates and operations.
Additionally, new actors – private security companies, regional coalitions, and parallel military forces – are increasingly playing a role in conflict zones, further complicating the UN’s ability to assert control and maintain its legitimacy. These new players often operate outside the traditional frameworks of international diplomacy and can provide appealing alternatives for host states.
The evolution of missions since 1945
These dynamics feed into broader trends pointing to a reduction in the overall number of peace missions deployed over the past two decades and their mandates.
Research by teams at the Geneva Graduate Institute and at ETH Zurich shows that more than 140 UN peace missions – ranging from traditional peacekeeping to special political missions and good offices engagements – have been deployed globally since the UN’s creation in 1945. The number of missions, their types, and their objectives have changed greatly over time and space, due to changes in the nature of conflicts and in the international environment.
During the Cold War (1948-1989), the UN deployed only a few missions, and the majority were peacekeeping operations. Their mandate and scope were limited, primarily to monitoring ceasefires and buffer zones, such as between India and Pakistan, Israel and Egypt, or in Cyprus.
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With the rise of intra-state armed conflicts and renewed hopes in the value of multilateral cooperation in the 1990s, the UN then deployed an increasing number of “multidimensional” peacekeeping operations, with military but also civilian mandate components, such as fostering the rule of law, human rights, and civil society promotion. Meanwhile, political missions became more frequent. A record total of 58 new missions were deployed between 1990 and 2000.
In the past two decades, trends shifted again. As the world has moved toward a multipolar world order, marked by increasingly internationalised civil wars and heightened geopolitical competition, the number and scope of peacekeeping operations is in decline again, while the number of political missions has remained stable. The latter now dominate the UN peace missions landscape.
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And now? Potential future directions of UN peace missions
The UN remains an indispensable and unique forum to address international peace and security concerns. As trust in its peace missions is eroding, a new path forward should be envisioned.
Experts suggest a more fundamental rethink of the solutions provided by UN missions, backed up by courageous leadership. This would involve, at the very least, reflecting on the relevance and comparative advantages of the UN in different contexts.
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It would also require adapting mandates to the actual needs of host states and populations, based on active listening. Reaching consensus with host states over the mission’s objectives, rather than imposing a one-size-fits-all approach, may be crucial for rebuilding trust and fostering the long-term peace that these missions are meant to achieve. As a senior UN official emphasised at a recent panel on MINUSMA, “We have grown too comfortable in the concepts we have developed”.
The Pact for the Future might serve as a promising framework for rethinking the potential future directions of UN peace missions. Yet, efforts should foster an inclusive dialogue that extends to member states but also civil society, local stakeholders, and regional organisations.
To conclude, the future of UN peace missions will depend on their ability to adapt to the evolving global landscape, rebuild trust with host countries, and navigate the geopolitical tensions that so often complicate their work. As the cases of MINUSMA and MONUSCO demonstrate, the time has come for a critical reassessment of how the international community approaches peace missions in the coming decades.
Chiara Lanfranchi has received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
Margaux Pinaud has received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
Sara Hellmüller has received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
