If one was looking for a motive for the extraordinary leak of text messages describing the prime minister, Scott Morrison, as “a horrible, horrible person”, “a fraud” and a “psycho”, then the wild factional brawl within the New South Wales division of the Liberals is a good place to start.
“This is a major hit job by NSW on Morrison and his offsider, [Alex] Hawke,” one senior NSW Liberal said of the blue-on-blue attack.
Morrison also upped the ante.
During a chat with 2GB’s Ray Hadley he publicly threatened federal intervention in the NSW division.
“If they can’t endorse [federal environment minister Sussan Ley] they should get out of the way and let the federal executive ensure we can get things done,” the prime minister said.
On Monday, the state executive rebuffed a motion designed in the prime minister’s office to automatically re-endorse three sitting members, including Ley.
The NSW Liberal party, arguably the most dysfunctional branch in the country, is in the final stages of trying to carve up the spoils for the next federal election: eight safe or winnable seats that could guarantee careers in federal parliament for years.
The choices could determine whether Morrison holds or picks up seats in NSW. Understandably he wants a say. The problem is the rules don’t give him one.
The composition of the parliamentary party will also determine the balance of internal power within the three factions in the NSW Liberal party – the moderates, the right and the centre right.
This will determine the policy direction of the Liberals in the future. But more immediately, it’s also about the influence of those who rule within the party behind the scenes.
Despite the federal election being due by May, party mechanisms have been seized up by obstruction.
It has now reached a crisis point, with factional organisers unable to deliver on a complex peace deal on who will be candidates. This threatens to expose their own weakness and could implode the NSW division.
The prime minister, a former state director of the NSW Liberals, and Hawke – his immigration minister who is also the convener of the centre-right faction, the PM’s power base – are at the very heart of this internal toxic dispute.
Hawke, who represents the prime minister on a crucial vetting committee, is being blamed by all for the delays in choosing candidates by failing to make himself available to scrutinise candidates. Some think the pair are engineering a crisis so the PM can pick candidates.
The other factor is the relatively new rules which were designed to insert democracy into preselections. Plebiscites of all branch members are required under new rules, but the results are unpredictable or in some cases undesirable to some.
These have been delayed by Hawke’s actions to the point they may no longer be possible.
In the branches, members are furious.
The right and the moderates are desperately trying to stitch together a grand bargain that satisfies everyone, to no avail. Candidates are now withdrawing, fearing the seats are unwinnable, and there are threats of legal action from members over the breach of the new rules.
So when texts allegedly sent between the former premier, Gladys Berejiklian and “a cabinet minister” were lobbed into the public domain on Tuesday via a question at the press club in Canberra, the fingers immediately pointed to one of the most prominent factional players in NSW: Matt Kean – the NSW treasurer, Berejiklian confidante and moderate convener.
On Wednesday morning on 2GB’s Ben Fordham show, Kean denied he was the leaker. “I played no part in the ambush of the prime minister. It was not me,” he said.
It was “completely insulting” to suggest he was behind the text messages, Kean said. The journalist who asked the question at the press club, Peter Van Onselen, has since clarified his source was a federal minister.
Berejiklian has said she couldn’t recall the text exchanges.
The federal Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce, claimed on Wednesday he knew who Berejiklian was allegedly texting.
But whoever is responsible, this is not accidental and its delivery at a televised event ensured maximum media follow-up.
Those of us who have peeked inside the feudal court of the NSW Liberals can vouch that the prime minister and Hawke are extremely unpopular with many right and moderate factional figures.
On the right, many feel Hawke’s actions – which have effectively delayed preselections – are about engineering a crisis and denying branch members democracy.
Among the moderates, the dominant faction, there is equal frustration as they blame the prime minister for upsetting the more recent peace deal.
Others see in the leak an attempt to distance the NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, from the prime minister and his record on Covid-19 planning, the related economic slowdown and women’s issues.
Perrottet’s electoral test will come sooner, with four state byelections scheduled for 12 February.
But for Perrottet, there are risks he too could be tarnished in the eyes of the electorate by the organisational division’s infighting.
There’s an old adage in politics: if you can’t govern yourself, you can’t govern the country.
Voters might not follow the ins and outs of factional wars, but they know it causes paralysis in governments, pollutes who gets preselected to represent them and leads to cronyism within a political party.
In short, they hate internal bickering.
So if someone in the NSW or federal Liberals thought this was a smart strategy, they probably need to get out more.
