As the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on, leaked documents have predicted that Ukrainian air defenses could be exhausted next month, leaving Vladimir Putin free to send in fighter jets.
Leaked documents, appearing to be from the Pentagon, have appeared online in recent days, which include classified information and details about Ukrainian resources for their air defenses.
The documents are said to contain details about how Ukraine's S-300 air defense systems could run out of missiles and ammunition as early as May 2 based on the usage at the time the documents were created. The documents also appeared to detail how air defenses protecting Ukrainian troops fighting on the front line could end up being 'completely reduced' by May 23.
A criminal investigation has been launched by the Pentagon to look into the source of the leak. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said officials are looking into the validity of the material, which was reportedly shared on both Twitter and Telegram.
Photographs of documents, which are dated February 28, show an assessment of the situation, including an outline of the risks currently facing Ukraine if their air defenses are not bolstered. This includes Ukraine having to "choose" what critical national infrastructure to protect as they balance "limited resources".
Analysis and risks were based on Ukraine's consumption rates at the time the documents were produced, however it is not clear whether the rates have changed and what impact that will then have.
Labelled 'SECRET' in bold red letters, the documents appear to resemble routine updates, which are produced daily by the US military's joint staff, but not published. They do not contain war plans, nor do they contain details on any planned Ukraine offensive, but instead provide details on the progress of weapons and equipment going into Ukraine.
They offer more precise timelines and amounts than has been provided publicly. They also contain inaccuracies, such as esstimates of deaths of Russian troops which are significantly lower than numbers publicly stated by US officials - which has led some to question their authenticity.
Under a section titled "Total Assessed Losses," one document lists 16,000-17,500 Russian casualties and up to 71,000 Ukrainian casualties. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said publicly last November that Russia has lost "well over" 100,000 soldiers, and Ukraine had lost about that many also. And those estimates have continued to climb in recent months, although officials have stopped providing more exact numbers.
In a statement on Friday, April 7 , Sabrina Singh said the Defense Department "made a formal referral" regarding the matter to the Justice Department to be investigated. In a separate statement on the same day, the Justice Department said: "We have been in communication with the Department of Defense realted to this matter and have begun an investigation."
"It is very important to remember that in recent decades, the Russian special services' most successful operations have been taking place in Photoshop," Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, said on Ukrainian TV. "From a preliminary analysis of these materials, we see false, distorted figures on losses on both sides, with part of the information collected from open sources."
If the documents are proved to be at all authentic, it raises questions about what other information about not just the Ukraine war, but any upcoming offensive, could be distributed.
It was the New York Times who first reported about the leaked documents, going on to say that more documents involving not just Ukraine, but other sensitive national security topics such as China and the Middle East, had begun to appear on social media.
A US official said even if the documents are legitimate, the US believes there is little real intelligence value to them - since much of the information would likely be known by Russia, or learned from the state of the battlefield.
Though the release of the documents sems to be the most serious public leak of classified information in years, officials have made it clear that it does not yet reach the scale and scope of the information which appeared on WikiLeaks in 2013.
