TAIPEI — At the heart of the debate between Taiwanese and U.S. policymakers over how best to avert a feared attack by China in the coming years is a question over whether certain diplomatic or military actions the U.S. could take might backfire, with Beijing deciding to speed its timetable for an invasion.
Any such moves would be intended to shore up the fragile status quo along the Taiwan Strait. But stakeholders on both sides of the debate in Taipei and Washington are struggling over how best to safeguard Taiwan’s status as a vibrant democracy. Over a dozen Taiwanese analysts, retired senior military officers, and lawmakers that CQ Roll Call spoke with here over the last month acknowledged an uncertain — and potentially volatile — strategic calculus.
“It is really delicate and sometimes ambiguous,” said Christina Lai, an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Science Academia Sinica, about trying to predict how Beijing might respond to various actions the U.S. could take to try bolstering Taiwan without sparking an escalation.
