Latin America’s two biggest populists, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, had famously warm relationships with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Both stubbornly delayed acknowledging Joe Biden’s electoral victory, even as they declared a desire for productive relations with his administration and the United States. Yet, U.S.-Mexican and U.S.-Brazilian bilateral relationships appear to be heading for a collision course. Channeling the relationships with both López Obrador and Bolsonaro in a productive direction will require all of the diplomatic finesse that the Biden administration can muster. Push them too little, and they could interpret inaction as tantamount to endorsement of their agendas. Too hard, and they could lash out—earning domestic political benefits in the process.
Former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz used to liken diplomacy to gardening, with security and prosperity preserved through the patient nurturing of relationships and the occasional pulling of weeds. In Mexico and Brazil, the Biden administration confronts a garden overrun by weeds and in need of serious tilling. It will soon find that all the fraternizing during the Trump administration mostly just masked a growing divergence in policy agendas.
