The house itself is a modest, two-storey dwelling on a larger parcel of picturesque land. Mist floats down from the jungled hills behind, settling in the narrow lane that winds towards the rundown remnants of a mine.
The only people there on the day the Guardian visits are curious tourists. They are there for one thing: to see the family home of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s next president.
Lai was one of seven children born to a working-class mining family in Wanli, a small hillside village near Taiwan’s north-east coast. His father, Lai Chao-chin, died in a mining accident when Lai was two, leaving his mother to raise them alone in the small house on the mining tenement. In 2023 Lai told Time magazine that the family’s hard life taught him a sense of determination.
That determination has taken him to the top of Taiwan politics. On Monday, Taiwan will celebrate the inauguration of Lai, its fifth president since free and direct elections began after decades of martial law. He will be taking over from Tsai Ing-wen, at a dangerous time in Taiwan’s history, with China’s threats to annex Taiwan growing in scope and seriousness.
In Wanli, Luo Kuo-lin, a neighbour of Lai since childhood, says that when they were young, Lai had wanted to become chief of the village, but “his dreams got bigger”. Lai’s mother died some years ago, but is described as having high expectations of her children, and an aversion to her son working in politics.
Yet the teenage Lai was politically curious, says Luo. In the late 70s, Taiwan was still under martial law, and students were taught to venerate the government and its authoritarian ruler, Chiang Kai-shek.
Luo says Lai instead read books that taught him to question the status of the Chiangs. He never talked about Taiwan becoming independent, says Luo, but “he thought it should be more open”.
The families of Lai and Luo were among the few who stayed in Wanli after the mine closed and the land became public. Ambiguities around the legal status of the houses would later haunt Lai’s presidential campaign, as opponents accused him of owning an “illegal” dwelling after he rebuilt it in 2003 for his elderly mother.
These days the old entrance to the mine tunnel complex where Lai’s father died is partially hidden behind undergrowth but it is marked by a recently erected sign lauding the achievements of the village’s successful son. Luo says Lai wasn’t a fan of the sign, but this small community is now of national interest.
Gearing up for a fight
Lai is preparing to take over as president of the self-governed island at a time of increased geopolitical danger and intense global scrutiny, but analysts and rivals say Lai is not the kind of leader to shy away from a fight.
They describe the 64-year-old as driven, compassionate and principled, but also stubborn and hot-tempered.
Lai, who served as Tsai’s vice-president faces a combative first term, operating without a majority in Taiwan’s deeply divided legislature.
There are splits inside the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) on multiple domestic issues, and a significant divide exists over the issue of Taiwan independence.
Lai is associated with the “deep green” faction, which favours full and recognised independence. In 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”, a quote that has followed him ever since, particularly throughout the recent campaign. It has been used to bolster accusations by the opposition that the DPP government has worsened tensions with China. It’s a line he has since walked back, instead aligning himself with Tsai’s more moderate stance. “We have to be unified, continue to strengthen Taiwan, protect the democratic frontline and ensure Taiwan’s security,” Lai said in April.
Analysts and others who know Lai tell the Guardian they don’t think he has changed his mind, it’s more that he’s seen one of two political realities: that his earlier positions could now put Taiwan in more danger, or that they would be politically unpopular. Some say it’s a bit of both.
“Lai has become more mature in the way he fights,” says Dr Wang Cheng-kun, a former colleague at a hospital where Lai worked.
Dafydd Fell, director of the Centre of Taiwan Studies at Soas University of London says: “He’s a pragmatic politician who like most DPP politicians prioritises maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence.”
Lai will be fighting on multiple fronts. Beijing despises Lai more than Tsai and the Chinese Communist party will be watching his inauguration speech closely, but analysts say it doesn’t matter much what he says – if they want to react they will find a reason.
“No matter what he says during the inauguration, China will always disagree,” DPP legislator Puma Shen told Reuters.
In the lead-up to the inauguration, China’s military launched increasing numbers of war planes and ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone and across its median line – a provocative “greyzone” tactic to intimidate Taiwan and wear down its defences.
‘He always insists on what he believes is correct’
After finishing high school, Lai trained as a doctor, including at Harvard, and became chief resident at National Cheng Kung University (NCKU) hospital.
He led a residents representative group, advocated for better pay and conditions and held numerous events that were “always about democracy”, says Dr Wang, a colleague at the time and long time friend of Lai. In 1994, Lai assisted with a DPP gubernatorial campaign, and in 1996 he formally entered politics, representing Tainan city at a national level. Lai has previously told the media he was prompted to run and contribute to Taiwan’s defence because of the Taiwan Strait Crisis of the time.
It marked the beginning of Lai’s ascent. After four terms in the national legislature, he became the mayor of Tainan, serving from 2010 to 2017.
“When he runs for something, he gets elected,” says Wang.
As chief resident at NCKU hospital, legislator, and then mayor of Tainan, Lai developed a reputation for being a perfectionist, and working his staff hard. In his younger years he could be “aggressive, thumping tables and shouting” during meetings, recalls Wang. “Lai is very stubborn, he always insists on what he believes is correct,” he says.
He drew fame as Tainan mayor for boycotting meetings in protest against corruption, and for his fiery clashes with his long-time political rival, KMT politician Hsieh Long-jie.
In 2017, Lai was appointed premier by President Tsai, but resigned the next year after the DPP suffered widespread defeat in district elections. In early 2019, Lai sought preselection as the DPP’s presidential candidate for the upcoming election, directly challenging Tsai – the first time such an act had been taken against a sitting president in Taiwan’s modern democratic history.
He lost the battle, Tsai won 35.67% of the primaries vote to Lai’s 27.48%, but what could have been a party-damaging rupture was handled swiftly, with Lai invited to run as Tsai’s vice-president, says Fell. “Tsai was very skilful in the way she was able to bring Lai back into the fold and to project the image of a united party in the 2020 campaign.”
The Tsai-Lai ticket won the election with record-breaking support. Four years later, Lai has pledged to continue Tsai’s path, which means a diversion from his past – and possibly current – beliefs.
Tsai moderated the impact of her pro-sovereignty position by advocating for cross-strait relations to be conducted within the framework of Taiwan’s laws and constitution, which hold references to the existence of “one China” of which both China and Taiwan are part. The ambiguity helps keep the peace, analysts have said. But in some public statements, including the presidential debate and political rallies, Lai has revealed scepticism about the concept, and of the constitution.
From major to minor
Some people in Taiwan are still wary of his independence-leaning past. And he has inherited cost of living and other domestic issues. In Taipei, an ardently pro-DPP taxi driver says he was a huge fan of Tsai. He thinks Lai is “not bad”.
The wariness among even party diehards is just one of the challenges Lai faces. Beijing is “bound to launch cognitive warfare” over the fact that he won the presidency with just 40.5% of the three-way vote, says Professor Shen Yu-Chung at the department of political science at Tunghai University. His party also lost control of the legislature. “The DPP’s lack of a majority in parliament will definitely undermine Lai’s presidency,” says Fell. “I am not sure whether either [opposition party] is interested in collaborative policy making.”
Lai’s minority win is something of a setback for a politician more used to high popularity. The campaign attacks did some damage. The “illegal” house accusations painted him as a kind of elite landlord flouting the laws – something Luo says insulted the whole village.
Back in Wanli, one group of tourists take selfies outside the door. The property is not as upmarket as they were led to believe but they think the criticism of Lai was fair. Ben, from Taipei, tells the Guardian there are houses all over Taiwan that fall into legal grey areas, including his own. “But I’m not the president.”
Lai’s KMT rival, Hsieh, is warily withholding judgment. Hsieh says Taiwan should “give Lai a chance”.
“Lai is very stubborn on some things, but there is a lot of compromise.”
