The Labour Party has won the City of Chester by-election with 61.2% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 22.4%. That is a big victory and represents the Tories’ lowest share of the vote in the constituency since 1832. For context, this is a seat David Cameron’s party won in 2010.
Of course, true political nerds are more interested in the swing, which was 13.8% to Labour. This is good, but is it good enough to win a majority?
That figure is less than a string of Labour by-election victories in the 1990s when the party was last this far ahead of the governing Conservatives. For example, Labour won the 1994 Dudley West by-election on a 29% swing and the 1996 South East Staffordshire by-election on 22%.
On the other hand, swings do not exist in isolation from the relative starting positions of the two parties. The contests above were held in seats held by the Tories. Chester was already Labour.
Different data points are saying different things. Britain Elects, the poll aggregator, predicts that if a general election were held today, 1. people would be pretty surprised and the electoral commission very annoyed and 2. Labour would win 459 seats to the Tories’ 101, representing an overall majority of 268. This is before tactical voting is taken into account, which is likely to further hurt the Conservatives if Labour and the Lib Dems continue to quietly work together.
Then again, it’s important not to lose sight of just how far back Labour is coming from, given how poorly the party performed in 2019. Keir Starmer needs to engineer a swing greater than the one Tony Blair achieved in 1997 to secure a majority of one. And while it is unlikely the Tories will be able to do much at this point to regain their lost ground, scrutiny will inevitably focus ever more on Labour as the election nears. Also, Scotland.
I guess we should wait until the 10pm exit poll sometime in 2024. But it’s fun to speculate, not least because I have a sore throat, it’s cold outside (and if your flat is anything like mine, inside too) living standards are falling and my world cup sweepstake team is already out of the tournament.
Elsewhere in the paper, but not totally unrelated, Sajid Javid has announced he is to stand down as an MP at the next election. In a letter the chair of his Conservative association, the former chancellor said the decision not to stand in his fifth election was one he had “wrestled with for some time”.
In the comment pages, Emily Sheffield says Harry and Meghan have a point, but thinks their trailer already looks incendiary. While I suggest we see the world through the lens of our youth, which is why sport/TV/music isn’t what it used to be (even if it’s actually better). Also contains an ode to Brigitte Macron and that large glass of wine we all deserve.
And finally, he doesn’t party anymore – he’s 58 – but this is still a delightful edition of ‘My London’ with national treasure (yes?) David Baddiel.
Have a lovely weekend.
