Tell me that you are one of those people who think that byelection results don’t really matter and I will know for a fact that you are not Sir Keir Starmer. He understands from bruising personal experience how much they can set the mood music of politics and drive its narratives, give momentum to a leader or place them in peril.
I say this because the first byelection of his time leading Labour was a job-menacing disaster. It was May 2021, the rollout of protection against Covid was rewarding the government with a “vaccine bounce” and Labour was limping behind the Conservatives in the polls. The Tories inflicted a morale-crushing defeat on Labour at the Hartlepool byelection. To rub it in, Boris Johnson celebrated by appearing in the constituency alongside a giant inflatable blimp of himself. Corbynistas and Blairites found something they could agree on, which was that Sir Keir was a dreadful disappointment. His friends became acutely anxious that he was in mortal peril of losing his job and sighed with relief when Labour just squeaked a hold at the Batley & Spen contest eight weeks later. One of his allies describes this grim period as a “near-death experience” for the Labour leader.
