Labour is on course for a landslide victory at the next general election but its margins are falling across the country, according to the first megapoll under new constituency boundaries to be introduced later this year.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party could win 470 seats compared with 129 for the Conservatives, the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group said.
The analysis is based on a survey by pollster Focaldata, which asked 10,140 people in Great Britain between April 20 and May 9 which party they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow.
The top three parties if an election were held today under new boundaries:
— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) June 7, 2023
LAB: 470
CON: 123
SNP: 26 https://t.co/NpXhMTHMFU
The findings are likely to pile pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, although he could take some comfort from predictions that Labour’s majority could be at risk across the country.
Labour’s vote share would be at about 35%, 12 percentage points ahead of the Tories, the modelling showed.
But that is lower than last autumn when polling gave Labour a 42% share.
Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith told a press briefing in Westminster: “Labour’s lead does look healthy but their margins are falling everywhere.”
She said Mr Sunak appears to have won back some of the Tory voters disaffected by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget last year.
But even in a worst-case scenario for Labour, it would still be the biggest party in a hung Parliament, according to the analysis.
Modelling suggests Labour could get 316 seats and the Tories 286 in a scenario where right-wing party Reform UK stands aside for the Conservatives in marginal seats – as Ukip and the Brexit Party have done previously – and undecided voters break for the Tories.
