LABOUR hold a four-point lead over the SNP in a new Scotland-only Westminster poll, new data has shown.
Norstat interviewed 1050 people in Scotland aged 16 and older between June 11 and 14 for The Sunday Times.
The data showed that 34% of those polled would vote Labour while 30% would vote SNP – a 1% increase on the previous poll.
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Norstat 11-14 Jun (changes vs 30 Apr- 3 May): Lab ~ 34% (nc) SNP ~ 30% (+1) Con ~ 14% (-2) LD ~ 9% (+1) RUK ~ 7% (+1) Grn ~ 4% (nc) Alba ~ 2% (-1) pic.twitter.com/kMUM9oyrmE
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) June 15, 2024
In terms of Scottish independence, the question remained tight with 51% opposed and 49% in favour when don’t knows were excluded.
It is also the first research carried out since Douglas Ross announced his resignation as leader of the Scottish Tories and his party is on course for its lowest share of the vote at a Westminster election.
Backing for the Scottish Tories dropped two points to 14%, Norstat found, while support for Reform increased by one point to 7% - a record high in Scotland.
It comes after Ross announced he would quit as leader following a row over a decision to sack David Duguid as a candidate.
Reform also overtook the Tories in a UK-wide poll for the first time.
Speaking to The Sunday Times, polling expert John Curtice (below) predicted the rise of Reform and anger around Ross’s decisions would boost the SNP’s chances in key seats in the north east.
“The party’s poll rating is down two points to 14%, a level that would represent its worst ever showing in a Westminster election, as south of the border the Tory campaign is not working out well,” he said.
Reform are standing a candidate in every constituency in Scotland and tight races are expected in key seats.
This includes the Aberdeenshire North & Moray East seat where Ross is set to stand and which the SNP have upgraded to a key target area.
First Minister John Swinney (below) is set to visit the constituency on Sunday as the SNP step up their focus in the constituency.
Elsewhere in the poll, the LibDems increased their support by a point to 9%, while the Greens were on 4% and Alba 2%.
According to analysis from Curtice, this would see Labour return 28 MPs in Scotland, up from the current two, while the SNP would win 18.
The LibDems meanwhile would increase their Scottish contingent of MPs from four to five.
Holyrood voting intentions
Polling was also conducted for Holyrood with voting intentions showing the SNP at 34%, two points ahead of Labour in the constituency vote.
The Tories meanwhile were predicted to pick up 16% of the vote, the LibDems 8%, Greens 6% and the remaining 5% going to other parties.
New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 11-14 Jun (changes vs 30 Apr - 3 May): List: SNP ~ 28% (+1) Lab ~ 27% (-1) Con ~ 16% (-1) Grn ~ 9% (nc) LD ~ 8% (nc) RUK ~ 7% (+1) Alba ~ 5% (+1) Const: SNP ~ 34% (nc) Lab ~ 32% (-1) Con ~ 16% (+2) LD ~ 8% (-1) Grn ~ 6% (+1) pic.twitter.com/s6GaFLyzxj
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) June 15, 2024
On the more proportional regional list vote meanwhile, Scottish Labour and the SNP were tied on 25% while the Tories would win 15%, the Greens 8%, LibDems 7%, Reform 6% and Alba 4%.
Under analysis from Curtice, this would make the SNP the largest party with 40 MSPs while Labour would be on 37.
The Greens meanwhile would win 10 MSPs and there would be a breakthrough for Reform and Alba with eight and three MSPs respectively.
