Some Welsh Labour activists are angry and frustrated that an unnoticed party rule change may result in a sitting MP getting a new seat without a contest.
Boundary changes expected to be ratified by Westminster in July will see the number of constituencies in Wales reduced from 40 to 32. This will result in significant alterations to the make-up of every seat in Wales, except Ynys Mon, which has been awarded special status and will continue to exist in its present form.
In south east Wales, the existing seats of Caerphilly and Islwyn are among those that will disappear. According to the final proposals from the Boundary Commission for Wales, a larger Caerphilly seat will be created while most of Islwyn - once held by former Labour leader Neil Kinnock - will be merged with Newport West to form a new seat called Newport West and Islwyn.
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Between them, Caerphilly, Islwyn and Newport West are currently represented by three MPs - Wayne David, Chris Evans and Ruth Jones. Mr David has already announced that he will not be seeking re-election.
Until last year, Labour had a policy that if more than 40% of a new constituency comprised a seat that was disappearing because of boundary changes, the sitting MP for the old seat would have a claim on the new one.
But in a change that wasn’t spotted by left-wing activists in Wales, a new rule was brought in removing the need for a displaced MP’s seat to constitute at least 40% of a new seat before he or she can lay claim to it. Instead, such a claim can now be made however small a part of the new constituency the sitting MP can bring to the table.
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One party activist told us: “It’s very regrettable that no one spotted the rule change. A new sentence was inserted into the text by the NEC [National Executive Committee], but Wales didn’t have to accept it. But because no one noticed, the new rule is in place and it applies to the situation in Wales as candidates are selected for the next general election.
“Ruth Jones is very likely to become the candidate for the expanded Newport West seat, which is fair enough. But it’s ridiculous that Chris Evans can get a safe seat for life, even though his existing constituency constitutes less than 10% of the new Caerphilly one.
“There are people in the constituency party who are furious and believe there should be an open selection for a new candidate.”
Mr Evans, who is a junior Shadow Defence Minister and seen as a centrist, said: “I’m aware of the rumours but I’m keeping out of this. No one from Welsh Labour has been in touch with me to discuss the situation.
“The boundary changes aren’t due to go through Parliament until July, and my position is that I continue to support the original Boundary Commission proposal, which wouldn’t have seen Islwyn being merged with Newport West. I’d like to see the final recommendation thrown out and the original one reinstated.”
At the last general election in 2019, Mr Evans had a majority of 5,464 over the second-placed Conservative candidate.
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