A majority of voters agree with key Labor campaign messages that Scott Morrison is “all announcement no delivery” and Labor will “put the care back into aged care”, according to new research.
A poll of 1,000 voters, commissioned by the progressive think-tank the Australia Institute, shows Labor’s messages are the most effective of the campaign so far, although Coalition claims about handling of the economy also test well.
As the campaign nears the halfway mark, Labor is intent on keeping the pressure on Scott Morrison, but the highest inflation in more than 20 years and the expectation of a campaign interest rate rise is increasing the salience of cost of living pressures.
The nationally representative poll has a margin of error of 3% and was conducted after the Easter weekend, after Anthony Albanese’s gaffe on unemployment dominated the first week of the campaign but before Covid-19 forced the opposition leader into one week of isolation.
In the poll, 53% of respondents agreed Morrison is “all announcement no delivery”, with just 31% disagreeing (net +22%). That message was potent across the political spectrum, with Labor (72%), Greens (69%), One Nation (50%) and other voters (56%) agreeing.
The claim that Morrison is “there for the photo-op not for the follow-up” has been central to Labor’s attack on the prime minister since 2020, and seeks to remind voters about failures to deliver including in the wake of catastrophic bushfires.
Perhaps surprisingly in an election dominated by negative messaging, the next most effective message was Labor’s on aged care.
Half of respondents (50%) agreed with the claim that Labor will “put the care back into aged care” while 29% disagreed (+21%). However, this was boosted by stratospheric support among Labor voters (81% agreeing).
Some 45% of respondents agreed that “cutting Medicare is in the Liberals’ DNA, strengthening and protecting it is in Labor’s” while 31% disagreed (+14%). One Nation voters narrowly disagreed with that proposition; while more “other” voters agreed with it.
Key Coalition lines had net support of 8% (44% agreeing and 36% disagreeing): “the Coalition will deliver a stronger economy and a stronger future”; and “the Labor Party do not have an economic plan … and when you don’t understand the economy, and when you can’t run a campaign, that means you can’t run the country”.
A similar line claiming “Labor has no plan for Australia’s economy, no plan to create jobs and no plan for cost of living relief for Australians” received less support, with just 42% agreeing and 40% disagreeing. That line resonates with Coalition voters, with 73% agreeing, and One Nation (52%).
Claims the Coalition will deliver “a stronger economy and a stronger future” received majority support only from its own voters, with One Nation and other voters narrowly rejecting it.
Despite Morrison’s decision to ditch a commitment to an integrity commission and internal division over the candidate for Warringah, the first week was dominated by Albanese’s failure to name the unemployment rate and official cash rate.
The gaffe initially hurt Labor’s chances, although the opposition believes its effect is waning, as China’s security agreement with Solomon Islands and soaring inflation create discomfort for the Coalition in areas of their perceived traditional strengths.
