Labor is on track to wrest two seats from the Liberal Party in Melbourne, including what would be an historic victory in the former Liberal stronghold of Higgins.
The ALP is ahead in the ultra-marginal electorate of Chisholm — which covers Mount Waverley, Burwood and Box Hill — where the sitting member is first-term Liberal Gladys Liu.
With more than 22 per cent of the vote counted, the ABC's election computer has predicted a win for Labor's candidate Carina Garland.
Ms Garland is an academic and former assistant secretary at the Victorian Trades Hall Council.
Chisholm has changed hands between the Liberal and Labor parties in recent decades, often with a small majority.
At the last federal election, both major parties nominated candidates with Chinese backgrounds.
It was a first in Australian political history and reflected the fact that about one in five people in the Chisholm electorate have Chinese ancestry.
Chisholm was the state's most marginal seat in the 2019 vote, when it was won by the Liberal Party's Gladys Liu on a margin of 0.5 per cent.
There were 12 candidates on the ballot this year, so preference flows from the minor candidates could play a crucial role as more votes are counted.
Infectious diseases doctor on track for history-making victory
In Higgins, Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah, an infectious diseases doctor who rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, is on track to defeat first-term Liberal MP Katie Allen.
Dr Allen, a paediatrician, held the electorate on a margin of 2.6 per cent after the 2019 poll.
The seat in Melbourne's inner south-east has been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1949 and has been held by two former primer ministers — John Gorton and Harold Holt.
Traditionally a safe Liberal seat, Higgins — like many inner-city electorates in Melbourne — has experienced a rise in support for the Greens in recent years.
Higgins was today the site of controversy because of green-coloured signs urging people to "put Labor last" erected across the electorate.
Labor took the matter to the Federal Court, which issued an injunction ordering the signs be taken down.
The Liberal Party is also set to lose the seats of Kooyong and Goldstein, which have both been represented by the conservative side of politics since their creation.
Liberal MP Michael Sukkar was also facing a fierce contest in Deakin, which remained too close to call on Saturday night.
Labor on track to retain Corangamite, Dunkley
By 9pm, Labor was on track to retain several other key seats in Victoria.
Labor's Libby Coker looked set to retain the seat of Corangamite, which takes in outer Geelong and the northern Surf Coast.
Ms Coker was facing a challenge from Liberal Stephanie Asher, who left the role as Geelong mayor to contest the seat.
Corangamite has become a knife-edge seat in recent years as demographic shifts and boundary redistributions have changed the way the electorate votes.
Peta Murphy was also projected to hold the seat of Dunkley, which covers the south-east bayside suburb of Frankston and its surrounds.
Dunkley has changed hands between the Liberal and Labor parties over the years as its boundaries have changed, with barrister and former crown prosecutor Sharn Coombes contesting the seat for the Liberal Party this year.
Labor was also on track to pick up the new electorate of Hawke, covering satellite communities in Melbourne's west and north-west, taking in areas such as Sunbury, Melton and Bacchus Marsh.
After its creation, it was notionally held by Labor on a margin of 10.2 per cent, and the party recorded two-party majorities in 25 of the 26 polling places included in Hawke's boundaries at the 2019 election.
Sam Rae, a former state secretary of the Victorian Labor Party who headed Daniel Andrews's election campaign in 2018, was running for Labor and is projected to win the seat.
RMIT professor Enamul Haque was the Liberal candidate.
Minor parties — such as Clive Palmer's United Australia Party — were expected to pick up votes along the peri-urban fringe.
Nationals' grip on Nicholls in northern Victoria shaken
The Nationals' grip on power in Victoria's north was also shaken, with a tight race emerging between new Nationals candidate Sam Birrell and independent Rob Priestly in the electorate of Nicholls.
While Mr Birrell is on track to win the seat for his party, the mood at his Shepparton campaign gathering was bittersweet.
His independent rival hacked a significant chunk off the Nationals' historical 20 per cent margin, threatening the Coalition's comfortable reign in the region.
And while Mr Birrell’s party has retained the seat, it will not be under a Coalition government.
Mr Birrell admitted the seat’s stark swing against the Nationals showed his party "needs to listen to the electorate very carefully".
"Having said that, I think all governments needed to make very difficult decisions during the pandemic," he said.
"The electorate is very annoyed and upset and independents offer a bet each way in that you can have a political representative who's not associated with the really difficult decisions either the Coalition or Labor might have to make.
"I don't think it's a good trend."
Meanwhile in a speech to supporters, Mr Priestly said while he may not have claimed victory, the seat was no longer a Coalition stronghold.
“We've taken Nicholls from being one of the safest seats in the country, never discussed, never part of the national agenda, to being at the centre of the political discussion," he said.
"Nicholls is going to be completely contestable every time."
To the east, independent MP Helen Haines was on track to retain seat of Indi, which would be the fourth consecutive time the seat has been won by an independent candidate.
