Labor may be ‘vindicated’ by the budget, but a surplus would be cold comfort for those grappling with the cost of living

Any surplus in Jim Chalmers’ budget will be built on the backs of welfare recipients and low and middle income earners. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, came dangerously close on Friday to spoiling the surprise of a possible one-off surplus on budget night.

For those just tuning in to pre-budget news, the S-word must seem particularly jarring after months and years of chat about “structural challenges”, which is code for “the budget is rooted”.