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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor loses four points in two Newspolls to slump to a 50--50 tie

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up two).

In the final Newspoll taken before the October 14 Voice referendum, Labor led by 54–46. Three weeks ago, Labor’s lead had dropped to 52–48 and now it’s tied. This is the first time Labor has not led in Newspoll since June 2021.

Movements on leaders’ ratings were relatively modest, with Anthony Albanese’s satisfied rating down two to 40% and his dissatisfied rating up one to 53%, for a net approval of -13, down three points. Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term.

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