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Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor likely to get a friendly Senate and secures House of Representatives majority

AAP/Lukas Coch

UPDATE: On Monday night, the ABC called Macnamara as a Labor hold, giving Labor 76 of the 151 House of Representatives seats, enough for a majority. In the two remaining undecided seats, Labor has taken a narrow lead in Gilmore, while the Coalition is likely to hold Deakin.

The ABC’s call appears to be based on the telephone booth for those in COVID isolation in Macnamara. The Greens needed to win this booth on primary votes to have a realistic chance of overhauling Labor on the “three candidate preferred” measure (see below for an explanation), but Labor won this booth on primary votes with the Greens second.

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