Labor is favoured to win the Kiama byelection. A big loss could be the beginning of the end for Liberal leader Mark Speakman

Kiama, on the south coast of NSW, is going to a byelection after sitting MP Gareth Ward was convicted of rape. Photograph: Dee Kramer Photography

Byelections often have a simple story and, beyond that, a broader political message.

The top line of Saturday’s Kiama byelection on the New South Wales south coast will be who replaces the convicted rapist Gareth Ward as the local MP in Macquarie Street.