As pre-polling opens in Dunkley, Labor would like voters to focus on tax cuts, while the Liberals are highlighting the interests of small businesses in a bid to win the electorate in Melbourne’s south-east. Data from social media advertising tool PoliDashboard shows the Labor Party is trying to woo voters by reminding them of the revamped stage three tax cuts, mentioning that policy in numerous ads on Facebook over the past three weeks.
One such ad, marketed through Labor’s candidate Jodie Belyea’s account, said: “Easing the cost of living is my number one priority. Labor is working to help, that’s why from July 1 we’re delivering tax cuts for every taxpayer.”
Since February 1, the party has spent up to $5,375 on Facebook ads, about 87% of which have been promoted to users in Victoria. Another common theme in the Labor ads has been attacking the Liberal candidate, Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy, as “Peter Dutton’s handpicked candidate”.
The Liberal Party has majorly outspent Labor in the same time period, spending up to $11,800 on Facebook ads aimed at Victorians. “Albanese has broken his promises,” began one Liberal party advertisement. Most of the ads promoted by the party tended to focus on small, local businesses and highlight Conroy’s relationships with local personalities. One such example was a quote from Frankston City citizen of the year 2022 Trudy Poole: “Nathan Conroy is an authentic part of Frankston with a passionate commitment to our community”.
But if the Liberal Party ads seem homely and uplifting, don’t judge until you’ve seen what Advance Australia is putting out in its ads. The conservative lobby group, which rose to prominence due to its work opposing the First Nations Voice to Parliament in the referendum campaign last year, has spent up to $14,000 on Facebook ads since February 1, 87% of which have been targeted at Victorians. The ads frequently attack Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and common themes include unaffordable housing, “brutal” financial burdens for families, and phrases such as “ute tax”.
A Victorian Liberal source told Crikey that the cost of living would be the biggest issue for voters in the by-election.
“The attack ads about Nathan Conroy shows Labor is worried, and I don’t think the tax cuts are resonating as much as they hoped,” the person said. “I think we’re in with a good chance”.
The Victorian electorate, which is held on a Labor margin of 6.3%, was held by the Liberal Party between 1996 and 2019. A poll commissioned by the progressive think tank the Australia Institute and announced on February 9 showed Labor ahead 52% to 48% in the Dunkley byelection, well within the margin of error. Market research firm Roy Morgan found in a poll announced on Monday that the federal Labor government has a similar lead nationally, 52.5% to the Coalition’s 47.5%.
Just over 2,000 people voted in pre-polling booths on Monday, the first day they were open, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green.
The Victorian Liberal source said the party expected about 45% of voters to cast their ballots early: “In the last few years, everyone has gotten used to pre-polling.”
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