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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor has narrow Newspoll lead but behind in other polls; Labor doomed in Queensland

A national Newspoll, conducted July 15–19 from a sample of 1,258, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others (down two).

Both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton gained on net approval, with Albanese up four points to -7, with 51% dissatisfied (down two) and 44% satisfied (up two). Dutton’s net approval was up eight points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 46–39 (46–38 three weeks ago).

Here is a graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The data are marked with plus signs with a smoothed line fitted. After a bad result last Newspoll, Albanese’s ratings have returned to their normal run since the October 2023 Voice referendum.

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