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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor, Albanese and the Voice slide in Resolve poll; Fadden byelection preference flows

Dean Lewins/AAP

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down two since the July Resolve poll), the Coalition 33% (up three), the Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 2% (up one), independents 10% (up one) and others 2% (steady).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes gives Labor about a 56–44 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since July. Resolve has easily been Labor’s most favourable pollster since the 2022 election.

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