Indiana is the top pick in the Big Ten men's basketball preseason media poll, but it might be easier to predict the Twins' starting rotation next season than it is to figure out the pecking order of a conference in transition.
For one year, the Big Ten men's basketball conference should be renamed the The Big Unknown.
Transfer portal madness again hit many programs during the offseason and several teams will need the opening weeks of the season to figure out who they are.
"This year is going to be a new age of Big Ten basketball," Northwestern coach Chris Collins said.
To be clear, that doesn't mean the Wildcats are about to ascend to a title contender. Collins is one of the few coaches who has an experienced roster at his disposal. Northwestern, however, is 13th in the preseason poll, one spot behind the Gophers.
What Collins is alluding to is that many recognizable faces have moved on, either by going pro, graduating or taking the transfer route. Several stars are gone: Jaden Ivey, E.J. Liddell, Kofi Cockburn, Trevion Williams, Trent Frazier, Keegan Murray, Jordan Bohannon, Trent Frazier, Johnny Davis and Gophers nemesis Brad Davison.
Who will you recognize this season? There are a few returning players — Hunter Dickenson at Michigan, Zach Edey at Purdue, Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis — who will be the faces of the conference, but they are far outnumbered in the Big Ten by incoming transfers and freshmen.
Transfer portal management is now a required skill for college coaching staffs. The Gophers, Ohio State and Illinois each have three incoming transfers. Nebraska is bringing in four transfers. When you add a few recruits to the mix, some programs are turning over more than half of its roster during an offseason.
"You're going to see years that you may have to replace seven, eight, nine different guys," Illinois coach Brad Underwood said. "I think the portal will be a very, very impactful issue for us moving forward."
As the influx of new players enters the conference, some will sail, some will fail and some will perform somewhere in between. Purdue and Illinois will have restructured backcourts this season, and growing pains are expected. Painter will continue to feed Edey, his 7-5 center. Underwood, no longer with the 7-foot Cockburn in the middle, is moving toward positionless basketball and could have four players between 6-7 and 6-10 on the court at the same time.
Indiana is the preseason favorite because four starters and four reserves return and Jackson-Davis is the preseason conference player of the year pick. The Hoosiers will need better outside shooting to challenge for the conference title. But what do the pollsters really know? They had Wisconsin picked to finish 10th in the conference last season, but the Badgers went 15-5 in the conference to share the title with Illinois.
So there's hope for teams like the Gophers to outplay their ranking. Jamison Battle gives the Gophers one bonafide go-to player. One of their transfers is big man Dawson Garcia, a top recruit out of Prior Lake High School.
The Gophers did have some eye-opening performances last season in Ben Johnson's first year in charge. A couple more this season and perhaps they can crack the top 10 in the conference. And cracking the top 10 means being on the fringe of an NCAA berth, as the Big Ten sent nine teams to the dance last season.
But a handful of teams besides Indiana could win the conference.
Illinois has a chance if Underwood can corral his rebuilt squad.
Purdue's Painter is an excellent coach and has a big man to get the ball to.
Michigan State can — because Tom Izzo, and the Spartans have six returning players and no transfers.
Michigan can because Dickenson returns alongside some top recruits.
Iowa can because of seven returners, no transfers and Kris Murray can make up for the departure of his brother, Keegan.
We won't know how good The Big Unknown will be until at least mid-January. And that is awesome.
"It will be interesting to see who's going to be there in the last week and a half of our league," Painter said, "because it's a bear, man."
