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The Conversation
The Conversation
Environment
Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, The University of Melbourne

La Niña back this summer? Not likely – and unofficial declarations are jumping the gun

It’s the height of summer and many Australians have already experienced heatwaves, heavy rains and even significant bushfires over the Christmas and New Year period. But could we be in for something different as summer draws to a close?

Lower sea surface water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are leading to speculation about a La Niña event starting to form, raising the risk of wet weather. That would be unusual because La Niña events typically start in winter and get going properly in spring, before “decaying” in late summer and autumn.

Given the time of year, it would be hard for a proper La Niña event to get going now. But the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook does point to a probable wet end to summer over most areas of Australia.

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