It appears everything is on the table for the Golden State Warriors amid this final stretch of the 2021-22 season.
What else can you believe after the nearly full-strength Warriors lost to the Magic on Tuesday and then beat the East’s top team, the Miami Heat, the next night with a skeleton crew?
As such, in a Western Conference that is formidable but lacking an odds-on favorite to win — the No. 1 seed Suns are currently +135 to win the West — matchups are vital as series could be drag-em out affairs. And right now, the Warriors could fall just about anywhere in the standings before the start of the playoffs.
The three seed? That’d be nice.
But the four and the five are on the table, too. And they might be more advantageous when it’s all said and done — as the Warriors should absolutely favor a good matchup over home-court advantage.
It’s something to keep an eye on because these playoffs will be relentless. If the situation arises where the Warriors can effectively pick their opponent, they should seriously consider it.
So who do they want to play and who do they want to avoid?
Here’s how I see it:
Not bad: Utah Jazz
Much is made of the Utah defense with shot-blocker extraordinaire Rudy Gobert in the paint, but that reputation doesn’t line up with reality anymore.
Simply put, I don’t see Jazz defenders being able to stick with the Warriors’ wings on the perimeter and Gobert might “get his” against the small Dubs, but he might also be run off the floor by Golden State’s spacing in a playoff matchup.
The X-factor in this series would be Donovan Mitchell, who has been playing well as of late. But frankly, I’ll believe that he can shoot a team — nearly singlehandedly — to a meaningful playoff victory when it happens. I just don’t see him as an efficient scorer or an alpha wing. He’s second tier, and that’s why the Jazz are not true title contenders, despite having excellent coaching, prodigious size, and some really nice role players.
Sorry. This is still a team playing Eric Paschall 12 minutes a night. I’ve seen that before and it’s not conducive to playoff success.
Possibly frisky: Denver Nuggets
Now Denver’s big man scares me. Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level and is affecting the game on both sides of the floor these days.
The Jazz might have better role players, but there is only one Jokic.
And so long as the Joker is on the floor, Denver has a chance of winning any game they play.
It should be noted that Draymond Green has posted success against Jokic in the past — I think back to a late-April game last season when Jokic was flummoxed for 33 minutes — but this is the best version of the Serbian and Green is yet to look like the world’s greatest defender since returning to the lineup.
I want to give both players the benefit of the doubt, so we must look elsewhere. That’s where I think the Warriors win.
Forgive me for not being thrilled by Aaron Gordon or Monte Morris. Give me Jonathan Kuminga or Jordan Poole.
The Warriors have their problems, no doubt, but they are the far more talented team in this matchup — so long as Jokic doesn’t take over the game.
Denver can tighten that gap a bit if Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray are available and reasonable facsimiles of the players we once knew. That said, after a bout of optimism a month ago, there is now serious doubt in the mountains that either player is going to be available for the playoff run.
It’s something to monitor, and while I don’t think Murray or Porter would swing a series against the Dubs, either could draw out the proceedings and that could have serious repercussions amid the Dubs’ run to a title.
Hard pass: Dallas Mavericks
This is the matchup the Warriors should try to avoid, if at all possible. While Dallas would not be favored against the Dubs in a seven-game series, a series between the two teams could well go seven games.
Why?
It’s simple: Luka.
The Warriors might have some strong on-ball defenders in Green, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, and Gary Payton II, but it might not matter against an offensive force like the Mavericks’ point guard.
Beyond that, defense is apparently dead in the NBA.
Since the All-Star break — 15 games for a third of the league — the NBA’s best defensive rating is 109. Two seasons ago, that wasn’t a top-10 rating.
And here’s how you know defense isn’t being played around the league: The Orlando Magic boasts that league-best 109.
No, this league is offense first, second, and third, and that might be the case in the playoffs, too, when offense comes from great players who can take – and make — shots from anywhere on the floor.
The Warriors lack that kind of player. Steph Curry might be a wizard, but he cannot rise over defenders when the shot clock is running low. Klay Thompson wants to be that guy, but he hasn’t been on a consistent basis since his return. Andrew Wiggins has the ability to be that kind of player, but rarely does he ever enter that mode.
But Doncic? He’s that dude.
And it doesn’t hurt that the Mavericks can play some defense — they’re tough — and their five-out offense has clicked in recent weeks, as Dallas always has a secondary handler on the floor — Spencer Dinwiddie, Jalen Brunson — and plenty of shooters around the arc.
Worse yet for the Warriors, the Mavericks play sloooooooow. If they weren’t so talented, it’d be painful.
The Mavs have been the slowest team in the NBA since they traded Kristaps Porzingis, averaging 94 possessions a game. They’re playing playoff-style basketball.
Doncic has been incredible since then, too, averaging 32 points per game on the highest usage rate in the NBA. He’s been efficient and ruthless, posting an effective field goal percentage of 54. That’s more than good enough come the postseason.
It’s all more than a bit reminiscent of another Texas team that gave the Warriors trouble in the playoffs during the dynastic run.
Yes, the Mavericks might just be the new Rockets. Only this time, James Harden is Slovenian.
